NBA

NBA expansion plan explained: Seattle, Las Vegas and the billion-dollar dilemma

Plans to add two new teams remain on the horizon, but financial concerns and cautious owners keep slowing the process down.

Juanma Rubio Calum Roche

Update: Jul 24th, 2025 10:30 EDT

NBA expansion remains very much on the table – a constant refrain and a horizon the league keeps riding toward but never quite reaches. The latest cold shower, at least for those growing impatient, came from NBA commissioner Adam Silver during his appearance at Las Vegas Summer League. The league’s top executive offered little clarity on one of its biggest unresolved issues.

The presumed order of operations was: new collective bargaining agreement (done, without labor disputes), historic new TV rights deals (also signed), and then expansion. But expansion has stalled. Multiple planning windows have passed with no progress, and the latest Nevada board meeting delivered no definitive news either.

Or perhaps it did – just not the kind many were hoping for. Silver said the NBA is now “looking more closely” at expansion. In other words, it hadn’t been doing so yet – either hard to believe or something they hadn’t admitted publicly until now. Either way, it’s clear we’re still at a very early stage of a process that many assumed would already be in motion, with teams 31 and 32 finally joining a league that’s been at 30 since the Charlotte Bobcats entered in 2004.

The expected destinations, barring surprises, are Seattle and Las Vegas. Seattle, home of the historic SuperSonics and once a vital NBA market before the franchise moved to Oklahoma City; and Las Vegas, the likely 31st team, now a booming sports hub already deeply intertwined with the NBA – through the Summer League, the in-season tournament finals, and other major events.

Silver confirmed the league’s 30 teams have now mandated an “exhaustive analysis of what expansion would mean financially – and beyond.” “There’s still a lot to evaluate,” he said, “and nothing has been decided in any direction. There’s no timeline either.” In short, expansion isn’t even at the starting line yet – just preparing to get there. Two committees, one financial and one strategic, will now begin studying the issue.

The roadblock – because of course there’s one – is financial. Expansion would provide an instant cash infusion for current owners, since new teams must pay a franchise fee based on the average team valuation. But that also means slicing up revenue among more partners. The current 30-way pie would become a 32-way split.

This shouldn’t be a problem, especially with the league’s jaw-dropping new broadcast deal – worth $76 billion over 11 years – guaranteeing enormous revenue in both the present and future. But it is. Silver also acknowledged that valuing new franchises is a challenge in a market experiencing unprecedented inflation, with every sale resetting expectations.

In recent months, the Celtics were valued at around $6.1 billion in a sale – a record that the Lakers have now reportedly blown past. That franchise’s valuation could hit $12 billion. Silver admitted no economic model predicted this: “That’s the trickiest part of expansion. You can’t just look at today – you have to forecast what the future should be.”

There’s also the matter of local and regional TV deals – another major source of team revenue – currently in flux. The old system is crumbling, with bankrupt regional networks, while new ownership groups test out experimental alternatives. “It would be malpractice on our part to move forward with expansion without knowing how local media rights will be restructured,” Silver said. “You can’t drop a team in a new market and just say, ‘Good luck getting your games to fans.’”

Still, Silver tried to present the Las Vegas meeting as progress: “We’ve taken a meaningful step. We’ve entered the in-depth analysis phase, which we hadn’t done before. But it’s day one. It’s too early to talk about prices and timelines – that would mean assuming the outcome, and this is a delicate issue.”

So, short-term? Nothing. Medium-term? Maybe – if things finally move. The NBA doesn’t hold back headlines when it’s ready to move decisively, but that wasn’t the case here. The same goes for the separate project of a European league. The NBA still wants it – ideally with FIBA’s blessing and without EuroLeague’s involvement – but details remain scarce. Silver noted it’s a standalone competition but admitted that “any European venture would also involve creating new teams,” tying it loosely to the broader expansion theme.

Another board of governors meeting is expected before the 2025–26 season begins – perhaps that’s when we’ll get more answers. For now, though, the message is clear: even if expansion will happen eventually, there’s no rush anymore, especially now that TV deals are locked in and owners can enjoy their larger shares without dilution – at least until the issue of local broadcasting is resolved, which remains a major headache.

James Dolan, the controversial Knicks owner, is a vocal opponent of expansion, but he’s not alone. The Athletic reported that multiple owners share his views. So yes, expansion will come – just not soon, and definitely not fast. A shame, especially for Seattle fans still waiting for the SuperSonics’ return.

A future still within reach

Almost no one doubts expansion will eventually happen – just not as quickly as many hoped. Following the blockbuster broadcast deal, which the NBA had been building toward with initiatives like the Play-In and In-Season Tournament, as well as new player rest rules, this was meant to be the moment to shift focus to expansion.

Behind the scenes, the gears were already turning. According to journalist Mike Vorkunov, NBA insiders were already laying groundwork – with investment groups, big banks and ambitious entrepreneurs quietly jockeying for position.

Even if the process had started this summer, new teams likely wouldn’t debut until the 2027–28 season. The last expansion – the Bobcats – took two years from announcement (2002) to tipoff (2004). But that was a special case: a non-competitive process meant to replace the Charlotte franchise that had relocated to New Orleans.

The longer the NBA waits to announce expansion, the higher the price tag – in theory. That’s because the franchise fee depends on rising valuations. Celtics and Lakers sales have redrawn the landscape just in the past five months.

And in the end, it’s all about the money. Players don’t vote on expansion, though more teams mean more jobs and a bigger market for talent. For owners, it’s a tradeoff: long-term revenue dilution versus a massive one-time payday. Entry fees could exceed $6 billion – possibly even reach the $12 billion threshold. That’s $400 million per current owner.

But those owners would then each hold a smaller share – 1/32 of the league, not 1/30. Over time, that adds up. Still, with league revenues climbing fast, the absolute numbers won’t shrink much, even if the percentage share does.

Launching an NBA franchise from scratch isn’t done overnight. Expansion reshapes the league’s future – and that future already seems to be shifting.

There’s peace between players and owners, plenty of talent to support deeper rosters, growing interest in the NBA as a 24/7 content machine, and huge markets hungry for teams. And, of course – there’s the money.

The NBA surpassed $10 billion in revenue in 2021–22 and is now set to add $2.7 billion annually just from national TV rights. Business titans are circling Adam Silver’s every move, and even skeptical owners may eventually yield to basic arithmetic: 32 slices of an ever-growing pie.

A bidding war is coming

So yes, there’s hesitation. But when the bidding opens, there will be plenty of interest. Expect other cities to join Las Vegas and Seattle, if only to drive up the price and separate the serious contenders from the rest.

This is what happened in the late ’80s: two new teams were expected, but four entered because the bids were too strong to ignore.

While the last expansion was atypical in speed, others took years. In the ’80s, it often took 3–4 years. In the ’90s, around two and a half. So no – this isn’t happening tomorrow. Not even the official greenlight is close.

The WNBA offers a template: after peaking at 16 teams, it contracted to 12, but is now growing again. The Golden State Valkyries debuted in 2025, selling over 17,000 season tickets. New franchises are coming to Toronto and Portland in 2026, followed by Cleveland, Detroit and Philadelphia – hitting a record 18 teams.

Franchise fees are soaring too: the Valkyries paid $50 million; the latest teams are paying $250 million each. Growth is real – and accelerating.

How an NBA team is built from scratch

The expansion draft – a rare and curious event – was last held in 2004 for the Bobcats. They had to select at least 14 and up to 29 players, picking only one from each existing team.

Each of the 29 teams could protect up to eight players under contract or restricted free agency. Unrestricted free agents were excluded. Teams with fewer than eight eligible players had to leave at least one available.

Trade deals could be made: teams could offer draft picks, cash or players to influence Charlotte’s selections. These rules will likely be updated for the next expansion, but they offer a basic idea of how talent is distributed to new teams.

Las Vegas, Seattle… and beyond

It’s widely assumed Seattle and Las Vegas are the next franchises – and both have been preparing for years.

Seattle’s loss of the SuperSonics remains a stain on NBA history. Issues with the arena and behind-the-scenes moves led to the franchise’s move to Oklahoma City.

Seattle nearly got a team again in 2013 by buying the Kings. It has a ready arena (shared with the WNBA’s Storm) and the backing of Oak View Group – also involved in Vegas’s bid. If the Sonics return, they’ll reclaim their name, colors and history, per the deal made during their relocation.

Las Vegas is exploding as a sports market. The NFL, NHL, WNBA, MLB and even Formula 1 have arrived. The NBA already has deep ties via Summer League, Team USA camps, and G League’s Ignite team.

Oak View Group has purchased 27 acres to build a new arena, ready by 2026, and part of a massive $10 billion casino-resort. That same project includes a high-speed rail to Los Angeles – backed by Bucks co-owner Wes Edens.

LeBron James has expressed interest in owning a Vegas team – and with his ties to Fenway Sports Group, it’s more than talk.

Silver has even called Las Vegas “the NBA’s 31st franchise” – in spirit, if not in ink.

There are other candidates too: Mexico City, with its G League team Capitanes, draws more fans than any other development squad. It also offers ideal time zones and a gateway to international expansion.

Vancouver (former home of the Grizzlies) and Montreal (Canada’s second-largest city) also bring global appeal. San Diego, Louisville, Kansas City and Pittsburgh often get name-checked – but unless the bidding surprises us, they’re longshots.

Assuming Seattle and Vegas are chosen, both would enter the Western Conference, which would then have 17 teams. To rebalance, one would move East – likely Memphis, New Orleans or Minnesota.

Of the three, Minnesota is the best geographic fit for the East, as suggested by ESPN.

It’s in the NBA’s DNA

Despite delays, expansion still feels inevitable. Silver himself has called it a natural next step.

The NBA began in 1946 as the BAA, with 11 teams. After merging with the NBL in 1948, it became the NBA, fluctuating from 8 to 17 teams until stabilizing.

Between 1966 and 1980, 11 new teams joined, forming the core of the modern league. The ABA merger in 1976 brought four more.

Since 1980, the league has gradually grown from 23 to 30 teams – with the last new one, Charlotte Bobcats, arriving in 2004.

That’s the key: for now. Expansion’s not dead – just slow. And when the time comes, it’ll be one of the biggest stories in NBA history.