Can the Cowboys still make the playoffs? The exact probability behind Dallas’ postseason chances
After losing to the Lions, Dallas needs a perfect finish and plenty of outside help, according to the latest playoff probability models.
Just when it looked as if the Dallas Cowboys had set up an unlikely fight with the Philadelphia Eagles to finish on top of the NFC East, their postseason hopes were severely dented by Thursday’s 44-30 loss to the Detroit Lions.
Momentum swings back to Philly in the NFC East
Only a few weeks ago, the Eagles were the division’s runaway leaders. Back-to-back defeats for Philadelphia, coupled with three straight wins for the Cowboys, had seen Brian Schottenheimer’s team begin to exert some pressure at the top of the standings.
That pressure has eased following Thursday’s result. The Eagles are 8-4 with five games to play, while Dallas is now 6-6-1 with four remaining. With Philly out of sorts in recent weeks, it still isn’t mathematically impossible for the top two to switch places.
What Philadelphia needs to clinch the division
However, Dallas cannot do better than 10-6-1, and they will only reach that mark by winning their last four games.
Three victories for the Eagles will clinch the NFC East no matter what the Cowboys do.
Cowboys’ bleak wild card outlook
Dallas could still sneak into the playoffs by claiming a wild card spot, although that now looks highly unlikely after losing to the Lions, one of the teams whose record they need to better.
The three current wild card teams, the Seattle Seahawks (9-3), Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) and San Francisco 49ers (9-4), already look extremely difficult to catch. And even if Dallas were to jump one of that trio, the Cowboys still need to surpass the Lions (8-5) and the Carolina Panthers (7-6), who hold an advantage as things stand.
To make matters worse, the Cowboys would lose tiebreakers against the Lions, the Panthers and the Chicago Bears (9-3), the current No. 1 seed who would only come into play if they are overtaken by the Packers in the NFC North.
Dallas hanging on by a thread
With all that taken into account, ESPN Analytics now gives Dallas just an 8 percent chance of clinching a playoff berth. The Cowboys have no margin for error and need numerous other results to go their way to avoid missing the postseason for the second straight year.
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