Can the Dolphins still make the playoffs? Here’s what they need to get in to the NFL postseason
The Dolphins need a number of things to go in their favour in order to qualify for the postseason.
As the 2025 NFL season hovers around Week 15, the Miami Dolphins find themselves clinging to hope. With a 6-7 record and four games left on the schedule, the outfit led by Mike McDaniel has not yet clinched a postseason berth.
In fact, their position in the AFC playoff race remains one of the most precarious in the league. But despite the tough outlook, they remain mathematically alive. Somebody get the You’re telling me there’s a chance? meme!
After a slow start to the season, the Dolphins have rallied, winning several games to stay in contention. However, the AFC is stacked with teams with stronger records or favourable tiebreakers, making Miami’s climb especially steep.
It's been 15 YEARS since the Bears & Jets won a playoff game 😅
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) December 13, 2025
And a QUARTER-CENTURY for the Dolphins 😭 pic.twitter.com/k4aGujwOQ9
According to updated probability models, Miami’s chance of reaching the postseason is extremely low, despite the recent winning run. Less-than-1-percent-heading-into-Week-15 levels of low.
For Dolphins fans, the most important starting point is simple and there is no need for nuance: Miami needs to win as many of its remaining games as possible. Winning all of their games, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots, would put them at 10-7. But even doing so, it’s unlikely to be enough on its own. The Dolphins’ conference record and head-to-head results are currently behind several other AFC hopefuls, which means they could lose tiebreakers if a host of teams finish with similar records.
That is why Miami’s fate is not entirely in its own hands. If the Dolphins win their remaining games but those in positions just above them also continue to win, Miami could still miss out. Ideally, several other teams need to falter. Key rivals like the Houston Texans, Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts must lose multiple games for Miami to climb into a wildcard spot.
Dolphins playoff scenario as it stands right now, all 3 must happen and require Miami to win out:
— Ehxxalt (@ehxxalt) December 15, 2025
Texans finish 0-3
Colts finish 1-2 with the 1 being the Texans
Ravens finish 2-1 or worse
*Miami can still bump Buffalo via the division tiebreaker if Buffalo finishes 0-3, but…
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Monday night’s clash with the Steelers becomes a critical pivot point. A loss would virtually end Miami’s playoff hopes, dropping them to 6-8 and leaving the remaining schedule a number crunch with too many obstacles. A victory, on the other hand, keeps the dream alive for another day.
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