Can the Miami Dolphins still make the NFL playoffs? What they need to get in

The end of the NFL regular season is rapidly approaching, which means it’s make or break time for a number of teams battling to get into the playoffs, including the Miami Dolphins.

Four franchises, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Lions and the Eagles, had already secured their postseason spots before the start of week 15, but the Dolphins are one of many who are on the outside looking in.

Miami (6-7) have long been out of the running for the AFC East title, which the Bills (10-3) wrapped up with several games to spare. That means the only chance Mike McDaniel’s team has of getting into the playoffs is through the wild-card round. That, however, isn’t going to be easy.

What do the Dolphins need to make the 2024 NFL playoffs?

To reach the postseason, the Dolphins must finish the regular season with the fifth, sixth or seventh best record (they are ninth at present). Heading into week 15, the teams in those positions were the Ravens, the Chargers and the Broncos, all of whom have 8-5 records.

However, Miami are also playing catchup with the eighth-placed Indianapolis Colts (6-7), who hold the tiebreaker over them, and may also have to be wary of the 10th-placed Cincinnati Bengals (5-8).

In short, they must leapfrog two of the teams ahead of them in the standings to be involved in the postseason.

Dolphins' remaining games in NFL 2024 season

The Dolphins four remaining games are:

Week 15 - @ Texans, Dec 15

Week 16 - 49ers, Dec 22

Week 17 - @ Browns, Dec 29

Week 18 - @ Jets, TBD

How the Dolphins can reach the postseason

Four wins

To give themselves the best chance of reaching the playoffs, they need to win all four games, which would see them finish with a 10-7 record. That would be enough if:

- the Colts win three games or fewer (finishing no better than 9-8)

- one of the Texans, the Ravens, the Chargers and the Broncos wins no more than one of their five remaining games (finishing 9-8).

Three wins

Winning three of the final four games (for a 9-8 record) could also be enough to reach the postseason, although it would be much less likely. In that scenario, they would qualify if:

- the Colts win two games or fewer (finishing no better than 8-9)

- one of the Texans, the Ravens, the Chargers and the Broncos loses all of their four remaining games (finishing 8-9).

- the Bengals don’t win all four of their remaining games (finishing no better than 8.9).

Two wins?

If the Dolphins were to finish 2-2 (for an 8-9 record) they would still have a (slim) chance if:

- the Colts, who hold the tiebreaker over them, win one game or fewer (finishing no better than 7-10)

- one of the Texans, the Ravens, the Chargers and the Broncos lose all of their four remaining games (finishing 8-9)

- the Bengals win three games or fewer (finishing no better than 8-9)

In all cases, either the Texans’ or the Colts’ final four results will be irrelevant depending on which of the two teams wins AFC South.

In the final scenario (two wins from the last four games), they could end the regular season with an identical record to any number of teams, which would bring a series of complex tiebreakers into the equation, depending on which franchises they finished level with.

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