NFL playoffs: 30 underdogs have won in Wild Card round since 2002
Since the 2002 National Football League season, 30 underdog teams have made it to the Divisional playoffs out of 78 Wild Card games played.
Although home-field advantage is seen as one of the most significant boosts in the NFL playoffs, hosting a Wild Card game is far from a guarantee of going through to the Divisional playoffs. Since the 2002 NFL season, there have been 84 Wild Card games, of which 30 have been won by teams that went into the round regarded as underdogs.
Furthermore, the likelihood of a Wild Card team beating the odds is considerably higher, considering there were no upsets in 2003, 2006, 2012, and 2016 at this stage of the playoffs. Without those four seasons, the effectiveness of underdogs in the Wild Cards rises to .483.
There are two big underdogs this season: The Los Angeles Rams (playing against the Detroit Lions) and the Philadelphia Eagles (playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
Wild Card underdog winners by season
| Season | AFC | NFC |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Falcons | |
| 2003 | ||
| 2004 | Jets | Rams, Vikings |
| 2005 | Buccaneers, Panthers | |
| 2006 | ||
| 2007 | Giants | |
| 2008 | Chargers | |
| 2009 | Jets, Ravens | Cardinals |
| 2010 | Jets | Packers, Seahawks |
| 2011 | Broncos | |
| 2012 | ||
| 2013 | Chargers, Colts | Saints |
| 2014 | Ravens | |
| 2015 | Packers | |
| 2016 | ||
| 2017 | Titans | Rams |
| 2018 | Chargers, Colts | Eagles |
| 2019 | Titans | Seahawks, Vikings |
| 2020 | Browns | Rams |
| 2021 | ||
| 2022 | ||
| 2023 |
Giants and Packers, the Wild Card aces
Two teams stand out among this select group of underdogs: the 2007 New York Giants and the 2010 Green Bay Packers. These two teams were the only ones in history to go into the Wild Card round as sacrificial lambs and emerge as Super Bowl champions.
The case of the Giants is paradigmatic as their victory over New England prevented the Patriots from pulling off only the second perfect season in NFL history after the 1972 Miami Dolphins. For their part, Green Bay ended a 14-year Super Bowl drought at Lambeau Field by beating the Steelers.
Other teams that warrant honorable mentions are the 2013 Colts, who achieved the second-biggest comeback in playoffs history by overturning a 28-point deficit against the Chiefs, and the Titans, who in 2019 kicked off their playoffs campaign with a 20-13 victory over the Patriots in what would turn out to be Tom Brady’s final game for New England.