One reason every Wild Card team could pull off an upset this weekend
The Wild Card Weekend begins this Saturday, and while the oddsmakers have determined their favorites, history shows that anything can happen.
The NFL playoffs rarely go according to script, and Wild Card Weekend is where chaos usually begins. Every January, at least one heavily favored team walks off the field stunned, while an underdog seizes a moment that changes its season, and sometimes its franchise. This year’s Wild Card slate is no different. Despite clear favorites in several matchups, every team entering the weekend has at least one believable path to an upset.
Here’s the single biggest reason each Wild Card team could shock the NFL and advance.
How Wild Card underdogs could pull off an upset
Rams @ Panthers - Saturday, Jan. 10 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Underdog: Carolina Panthers
Why an upset is possible: The Panthers already beat the Rams once, and at home.
Carolina finished 8-9 but clinched a playoff berth thanks to late-season help. In Week 13, the Panthers took down Los Angeles 31-28 in Charlotte. They did it by pressuring Matthew Stafford into turnovers and controlling the interior line of scrimmage.
The Rams are favored in this rematch, but without key offensive lineman Kevin Dotson, their ability to protect Stafford and establish consistency is compromised. Carolina’s defensive front is built to take advantage, which means this could be another close, grind-it-out game, and the Panthers know how to capitalize on those.
Packers @ Bears - Saturday, Jan. 10 at 8 p.m. ET
Underdog: Green Bay Packers
Why an upset is possible: A rivalry game with evenly matched rosters and no margin for mistakes.
The Green Bay Packers enter Saturday’s NFC Wild Card matchup as slight underdogs against the Chicago Bears, despite how close this game looks on paper. Green Bay dropped their final four regular-season games (though starters rested in the finale) and struggled defensively on the road, which helped push Chicago into the favorite role at Soldier Field. The Bears’ home-field advantage and turnover-driven defense have made them a narrow betting favorite in what many see as a toss-up.
Still, this matchup feels far from settled. Green Bay’s offensive talent keeps the upset firmly in play, especially against a Bears team that relies on timely takeaways rather than overwhelming opponents. With both teams viewed as evenly matched, this rivalry playoff showdown is likely to come down to a handful of critical moments rather than seeding or venue alone.
Bills @ Jaguars - Sunday, Jan. 11 at 1 p.m. ET
Underdog: Jacksonville Jaguars
Why an upset is possible: A strong defensive identity and playoff experience.
Buffalo enters as the betting favorite thanks to Josh Allen’s MVP-level play and a dynamic offense. But Jacksonville’s defense has been one of the toughest units in the league, capable of slowing down even elite quarterbacks. The Jaguars also have a veteran coaching staff and know how to grind out possession-based football.
If Jacksonville controls the clock, limits big plays, and forces enough three-and-outs, they have the kind of game script that squeezes out an upset, even against one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses.
49ers @ Eagles - Sunday, Jan. 11 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Underdog: San Francisco 49ers
Why an upset is possible: Defense may make this a classic chess match.
Philadelphia is favored on most betting boards. The Eagles finished with a better record and have been among the league’s most balanced teams. But the 49ers have historic playoff pedigree, arguably one of the best defensive units in football, and a veteran coaching staff that thrives in big moments.
If San Francisco’s pass rush disrupts Jalen Hurts early, and the 49ers convert turnovers into momentum, they can flip the script even in Philly.
Chargers @ Patriots - Sunday, Jan. 11 at 8 p.m. ET
Underdog: Los Angeles Chargers
Why an upset is possible: Playoff pressure on a second-year quarterback.
New England enters the Wild Card round as the favorite at home, led by second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who took a meaningful step forward in his development during the 2025 season. Maye has shown improved command of the offense, better decision-making, and the ability to push the ball downfield, all reasons the Patriots earned hosting duties.
Still, this will be Maye’s first playoff start, and postseason football brings a different level of intensity, especially against a Chargers defense that thrives on disguising coverage and creating pressure without selling out. If Los Angeles can muddy the picture pre-snap, force Maye into longer down-and-distance situations, and win early downs, they can flip the game script.
Texans @ Steelers - Monday, Jan. 12 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Underdog: Pittsburgh Steelers
Why an upset is possible: Playoff toughness and home-field chaos.
Houston enters this matchup as the favorite, thanks to a more consistent offense and a strong finish to the season. But Pittsburgh at home in January is never an easy out, regardless of seeding.
The Steelers’ defense remains their calling card. If they can slow Houston’s passing attack, win field position, and turn the game into a physical, low-scoring fight, they can absolutely steal this one. This matchup favors whoever controls momentum, and Pittsburgh has built its identity around surviving ugly games.
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