Super Bowl 2024, 49ers vs Chiefs: odds and predictions | Who is the favourite?

The San Francisco 49ers are shaping up as slight favourites to win Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium, where Kyle Shanahan’s men face the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of 2019′s NFL championship game.

Appearing in the eighth Super Bowl in their history, the 49ers are aiming to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the first time since 1994 - and are out to avenge their 31-20 defeat to the Chiefs four years ago. San Francisco led by 10 heading into the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LIV in Miami, but conceded 21 points in the final period as Kansas City won the first NFL title of the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era.

Having beaten the Philadelphia Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs are now bidding to become the first NFL team to retain their crown since Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in the 2004 season.

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49ers vs Chiefs: betting odds and predictions

Although Kansas City travel to Las Vegas as defending Super Bowl champions, US betting houses are leaning towards a San Francisco victory in Nevada. At the time of writing, the Californians’ moneyline odds mostly sat at -125, per Oddschecker (meaning that a $125 bet wins you $100). The Chiefs, meanwhile, are marginal underdogs at +110 (meaning that a $100 bet wins you $110).

In the media, the mix of predictions offered up by NFL experts and stats specialists likewise points to a Super Bowl LVIII that’s tough to call.

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives the 49ers a 59.4% chance of lifting the trophy, while the Opta Analyst’s supercomputer also projects San Francisco as the winner, handing the Californians a 64.4% probability of victory.

Speaking on the sports talk show Undisputed this week, three-time Super Bowl winner Michael Irvin also backed the 49ers to banish the memories of 2019. “I believe this game will be different,” the former Dallas Cowboys wide receiver said. “Right now, I’m leaning toward the 49ers winning this Super Bowl because when you look at it, you’ve got to say, ‘San Fran has gotten better.’”

However, several other analysts are predicting a Chiefs win. Bleacher Report’s Andrew Peters is going for a 27-21 triumph for the Missourians, declaring: “With the way Mahomes has played this postseason, the Chiefs will be tough to beat.”

Meanwhile, all but one of The Athletic’s team of experts fancy Kansas City to come out on top at Allegiant Stadium, with journalist Tashan Reed writing: “The 49ers deserve credit for engineering dramatic comebacks in both of their wins this postseason, but they’ve looked shakier than anticipated.

“Kansas City’s defense is playing at an elite level and should have the matchup advantage in the trenches, which raises the chances they’ll be able to get after and fluster [San Francisco quarterback Brock] Purdy. While the Chiefs’ offense has been underwhelming, they still have Mahomes and the 49ers defense hasn’t looked as formidable as anticipated.”

FOX analyst Geoff Schwartz also feels that the Chiefs are a better bet for Super Bowl success. “If San Francisco decides to pass the ball, the Niners could run into some issues, as Kansas City’s pass defense could take over the game,” Schwartz says. “Also, the Chiefs defensive line will have an advantage over every 49ers offensive lineman not named Trent Williams.

“Ultimately, the Chiefs have too many advantages, and you can still get them at plus money to win the game outright.”

Watch - 49ers vs Chiefs: this looks familiar…

The 49ers face the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday 11 February 2024, with kick-off at Allegiant Stadium scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT. Viewers in the US will be able to watch the game on CBS and Paramount+.You’ll also have the option of following live-text coverage of the Super Bowl right here at AS USA. We’ll be building up to the showpiece event throughout game day, before providing you with play-by-play commentary of the 49ers vs the Chiefs.

You can stream Super Bowl LVIII live on fuboTV, which offers users a free trial.