The number that matters for Packers – but the Broncos know it too

Josh Jacobs doesn’t need a magic number to explain his importance to the Packers’ road formula. What matters is simpler, and easier to verify: when Green Bay cansustainthe run game with Jacobs, its entire offensive structure holds together. When it can’t, the cracks tend to show.

Tactics for Packers on the road

Away from Lambeau, the Packers’ offense is far more sensitive to game flow. Early incompletions or penalties quickly tilt play-calling toward Jordan Love-heavy stretches, and that’s where efficiency drops. Jacobs’ value in those games hasn’t been explosive production as much as ballast. His carries keep Green Bay out of long-yardage situations and allow Matt LaFleur to stay patient.

This isn’t about a fixed carry total or a superstition dressed up as analytics. It’s about whether Jacobs is still part of the offense in the third quarter. When he is, Green Bay’s drives look intentional. When he fades out of the script, the offense becomes reactive.

Denver knows this, too. The Broncos have been one of the league’s most disciplined run-defending teams over the past two months, not because they sell out to stop the run, but because they force offenses to abandon it. Early down efficiency, edge containment, and consistent tackling have pushed opponents into second-and-longs that quietly end rushing plans by the second quarter.

Broncos target the Jacobs 15

Denver’s defense is built to test exactly that. The Broncos have been effective at forcing offenses to abandon the run not by shutting it down completely, but by limiting early-down success and squeezing the edges. Runs turn into two-yard gains. Second-and-manageable becomes second-and-eight. And coordinators start reaching for the pass menu sooner than planned.

If Denver can make Jacobs inefficient early, the carry count takes care of itself. The Packers don’t stop running because they choose to; they stop because the game nudges them there.

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