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What do the Buffalo Bills need to get into the NFL playoffs?

As the regular season comes to a close, the Bills are facing a range of outcomes, from clinching the second seed to potential elimination from the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws the ball against the New England Patriots
Gregory FisherUSA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

The Buffalo Bills are facing a Week 18 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. The NFL’s decision to leave Week 18 games unscheduled allows for flexibility, and the Bills-Dolphins game is set to be the season’s final regular-season game, taking place in Miami on Sunday Night Football.

The Bills aim for their fourth consecutive AFC East title and the second seed in the AFC. If they win against the Dolphins, they will secure both. However, a loss doesn’t necessarily mean the end of their playoff hopes; they would still have a chance to make it to the playoffs but would need help from other teams.

The first puzzle is in the Saturday afternoon game between the Ravens and the Steelers. If the Steelers lose to the Ravens, the Bills will clinch a postseason berth. The Ravens, who have already secured the top seed, may impact the outcome by making lineup decisions.

Another piece of the puzzle unfolds on Sunday afternoon when the Jaguars face the Titans. If the Jaguars lose and the Titans win, the Bills will secure a playoff spot, regardless of the outcome of their own game later that night.

The Bills’ playoff destiny is intertwined with multiple moving parts, and the outcomes on Saturday and Sunday will determine whether they emerge as the second seed, land a lower seed, or miss the playoffs altogether.

The game’s timing provides a unique advantage as the Bills prepare to take the field in Miami. Playing under the lights mitigates the notorious Miami heat, relieving the Bills, who won’t have to contend with the scorching afternoon sun. This factor has historically favored the home team at Hard Rock Stadium.

Analyzing Miami’s home performance adds another layer to the equation. The Dolphins have an impressive 13-3 record at home over the last two seasons under coach Mike McDaniel. Notably, two of their three losses occurred in December, which suggests that the stadium’s design may have played a role. The absence of Tua Tagovailoa in one loss highlights the importance of their starting quarterback.

In the larger playoff picture, securing a victory is crucial for the Bills to potentially secure the second seed, forcing the wild card and divisional rounds to Buffalo. Given their strength at home and the potential postseason matchup implications, avoiding a scenario where Miami becomes the second seed is also imperative.