Which team will have No. 1 pick at the 2026 NFL Draft?

Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season brought a major surprise as the New Orleans Saints made a last-minute field goal to secure an unlikely win against the Carolina Panthers.

That Saints victory takes then to 4-10 on the season, pulling ahead of the three NFL teams with just two wins so far in 2025. The three teams with a 2-12 record are the New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans, each of whom are in real contention to clinch the No. 1 overall pick at next year’s draft.

Unlike in the NBA, where a weighted lottery is used to bring a degree of randomness to the draft order, the NFL Draft is simply the reverse order of the final standings from the previous season. This means that either the Giants, Raiders or the Titans are in pole position to take the No. 1 pick.

Looking at the remaining schedule, there is only one fixture that pits two of those 2-12 teams against each other: the Week 17 clash between the Giants and the Raiders. That game could be decisive for the draft order.

Looking beyond those three teams, there are a few other names that could still finish with the No. 1 pick. The Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals are all 3-11 on the season. The Washington Commanders and the Cincinnati Bengals each have 4-10 record, meaning that they could still theoretically end the season with the worst record in the league.

Whoever finishes the the No. 1 pick at the 2026 NFL Draft, current projections suggest that quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the favorite to be taken first. The Indiana QB was recently named Heisman Trophy winner, highlighting his potential to be a franchise quarterback in the NFL.

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