Men’s Olympic Basketball Quarterfinal preview: USA-Brazil, German-Greece, Serbia-Australia, France-Canada

It’s been one of the most highlighted events in this summer’s Olympic Games from Paris. The Men’s 5x5 Basketball Tournament is now in the knockout stages and the best eight teams in the world will be fighting for podium position as the question remains: can anyone knock off the United States?

Five straight for Team USA?

Team USA has won four straight gold medals dating back to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. The country that invented the sport has dominated the Basketball in the Olympics since it was introduced in the Summer Games almost a century ago. Team USA has won gold in 17 of the 20 Olympics that Men’s Basketball has been a part of the Olympics, and come into the quarters as obvious favorites.

While the oddsmakers favor Team USA, there is no denying the rest of the world is catching up. Last year it was Germany that won the FIBA World Cup of Basketball after beating a Canada team that knocked the US out of the tournament in the semifinals. Both of those teams are in the quarterfinals, and will meet in the semis if both teams win their respective matches on Tuesday.

The early exit from the World Cup is what provoked the best players from USA to pact together and form a super team that has been compared to the Dream Team of 1992. LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and the rest of the super squad have been dominant through the first three games of the tournament, and will need to keep it up to avoid any surprises

Germany vs. Greece

Last year’s World Cup Champions against a Greece team led by perhaps the most dominant player in the world. Giannis Antetokounmpo led his team to a quarterfinal birth despite winning just one of the games in group stages. It took a 77-71 win over Australia in their final group stage game, and then need some help from Serbia. Serbia beat South Sudan by enough to sneak Greece and not the Olympic debutants into the knock out round. Greece is led by Giannis, and some experienced guard from around Euroleague like Nick Calathes, Thomas Walkup and Kostas Papanikolaou. While those three have plenty of experience, they aren’t the best perimeter shooters, and that’s what Giannis needs to stretch opposing defenses.

While Greece relies on Giannis guide them to victory, Germany has a methodic offense, that run crisp sets and find open looks by getting the defense running off the ball. Dennis Schroder is at the heart of everything for the Germans. He runs the point, can score the rock or set up his teammates and is a double-double threat every time he steps on the floor. Franz Wagner has already proven he can be the go to guy on the Orlando Magic, but that’s even more the case when he plays with Germany. Andreas Obst is a fantastic deep threat who hit 5/11 threes against the US during the pre-Olympic exhibition tour.

Prediction:

Giannis doesn’t dominate in international basketball like he does in the NBA. Teams can flood the paint and make sure he doesn’t get those easy looks off drives to the basket because of the absence of a defensive three second rule. Germany will be sure to have plenty of eyes on Giannis and I think the depth and the style of play favors Germany in this game.

Germany win 89-76

Serbia vs. Australia

This is a can’t miss game. Serbia and Australia have been two of the countries that have at the forefront of the basketball globalization. Australia has made it to the Semis in the last two Olympics and won their first medal, a bronze in Tokyo after losing to Team USA in the semis. They have a handful of NBA stars, led by Josh Giddey who is at his best when playing with his national team teammates. Dante Exum is the slasher that can attack the rack and stretch a defense with the long ball. Josh Green is a freak athlete that can turn offense to defense in the blink of an eye. Jock Landale in the big man in the middle for the Boomers. He was the leading scorer in two of the three group stage games, but he’ll be just as focused on keeping Nikola Jokic quiet down low.

The three-time NBA MVP is going to draw all of the Australian attention down low, but this Serbia team is a talented side with a couple of NBA players who may not be stars around the league, but they are stars with their national team. Bogdan Bogdanovic is a knockdown shooter who can score off the spot up or create his own shot off the dribble. Vasilije Micic is a former Euroleague MVP and two time Euroleague Champion playing with the Charlotte Hornets. Filip Petrusev and Marko Guduric add depth to this side that is one of the most likely to test Team USA, but they’ll have to get through the Boomers first.

Prediction:

Australia got through the Group of Death by winning just one game, but it was enough advance. They will have much less room for error against a Serbia team that bounced back from an opening match loss to Team USA with wins over South Sudan and Puerto Rico. These two teams met in a pre-Olympic exhibition and the Aussies took that game thanks to a 28 point performance from Patty Mills. I don’t think the Serbians get beat by the 35 year old or by Australia.

Serbia win 78-72

France vs. Canada

The mouthwatering matchups continue in the quarterfinals with France and Canada. The host nation have a plethora of young NBA talent led by the biggest star at the Olympics, quite literally. Victory Wembanyama headlines a giant front court that will give any team headaches when going up against the “home” team. Wemby leads a front line with Rudy Gobert and reigning Euroleague champion Mattias Lessort of Panathinaikos. Wemby has led France is scoring in every game, averaging 17 points and 10.7 rebounds a game, but the Group Stage matches weren’t all to convincing for France. They beat Brazil by 12, snuck past a Japan side that saw the duo of Kawamura and Hachimura score 53 points between the two. The back court is where France is going to have to show up not just defending, but Matthew Strazel and Evan Fournier are going to have to ease the load off Wemby and Gobert.

Canada is probably the most talented squad behind Team USA. The country that knocked the US out of the semis last year are out for blood this year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led his side through the Group of Death, winning all three games against tough opposition. It’s not just the MVP candidate SGA, this is a complete team from top to bottom. Jamal Murray is an NBA champion and one of the best point guards in the game. RJ Barrett has proved himself to be a bonfide scorer and Andrew Nembhard is coming off a near perfect game against Spain in the final game of Group Stages. Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks are the work horses for this team and Dwight Powell and Nick Alexander-Walker give this side depth that not many teams have in this tournament. They have already proven they can beat good teams, now it’s time to show they can beat the best teams. They won’t just be battling Wemby and France, they will be going up against the entire host nation who will be in full voice from Bercy Arena in Paris.

Prediction:

France is going to keep it close, because they have a big advantage in the front court, but I think Canada just has too much firepower across the board. If it’s not SGA, it will be Murray. If it’s not Murray it will be Nembhard. And if none of them are on target, they still have Dort and Brooks to lock down on the other end.

Canada wins 91-83

TEAM USA-BRAZIL

Could Brazil pull one of the upsets of the history of Olympic Basketball? Steve Kerr has already stated that he is wary of their physicality and their experience. “They’re very physical. I think they’re the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the tournament,” Team USA coach Steve Kerr said Sunday. “They’ve got a lot of really good shooters, and they just play hard.” They came out slow against France in the opener but got their wits about them against Germany and gave the defending World Cup champs a run for their money. Yago Santos, Vitor Benite and Bruno Caboclo are the danger men for Team USA. Caboclo had 33 and 17 in Brazil’s only win in group stages against Japan. If they are going to win on Tuesday they will need all three of their stars to have huge games.

Team USA put a shaky exhibition tour in the rearview, and dominated the Group Stages, starting with a win over Serbia thanks to a perfect shooting first half from Kevin Durant in which he scored 21 points on 8/8 shooting. It was Bam Adebayo’s turn to take the stage against South Sudan. He had 18 and 7 rebounds off the bench before Anthony Edwards went wild in the Puerto Rico game, scoring 26 points. Steve Kerr has a buffet of superstars to choose from, and it seems like none of them have a problem sharing the spotlight. If and when they need someone to step up and take over late in the game, we have seen LeBron is going to be the one with the ball in his hand. Team USA will hope it doesn’t come down to a close late game situation, but if it does, it never hurts to have the NBA’s all-time leading scorer.

Prediction:

Brazil will have to have the best game they have ever played just to stay in the game against this super team. We have seen teams come out and put their best foot forward, like Puerto Rico did in the first quarter when they led USA after 10 minutes. Unfortunately for Brazil, it’s a 40 minute game, and Team USA will have to have a disastrous game if they are going to keep it close through all four quarters.

USA win 104-78