Who is US Open men’s favorite after Djokovic and Alcaraz exits?

After the shockwave caused on Thursday by the early exit of Carlos Alcaraz, the 2022 champion, another bombshell hit the US Open on Friday. The reigning champ, Novak Djokovic, was defeated by Alexei Popyrin (6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 in 3 hours and 19 minutes), leaving him without a Grand Slam title this year for just the fourth time (the others were in 2009, 2010, and 2017) since he won his first at the 2008 Australian Open. For the first time in 22 years, dating back to 2002, neither Djokovic, Nadal, nor Federer (now retired) has won at least one of the four majors. A clear sign that the times are changing.

Djokovic admits to playing “horribly”

Djokovic had never committed so many double faults (14) in a single match. He had been concerned about his serve since the start of the tournament, beginning with his match against Moldovan Radu Albot. His anxiety grew during his encounter with fellow Serbian Laslo Djere, before Djere retired due to injury in the third set. “I served horribly. If I don’t improve in that aspect, I won’t get very far here,” Djokovic predicted at the time. He wasn’t wrong.

“Honestly, given how I felt and how I played from the start of this tournament, reaching the third round is a success. It was some of the worst tennis I’ve played; serving, by far, the worst of all. If you play on a fast surface like this without a reliable serve, without the ability to win free points, with a very low percentage of first serves, and many double faults, you can’t win,” Djokovic said after losing to Popyrin, a 25-year-old Australian and world No. 28, who had already troubled him earlier this year in Australia and Wimbledon and recently won the Masters 1000 in Canada. Popyrin finally secured the most important victory of his life.

“Third time’s the charm,” Alexei said in the post-match interview. “I had never made it past the third round (in Slams). It’s incredible that I did it against the greatest of all time. It’s a great feeling and a reward for hard work,” added the first player to defeat the 24-time Slam winner since his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt in 2006, who was seated in Popyrin’s box at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

As happened in 2023 against Djere in the same round, Djokovic found himself far behind in the match and hinted at a comeback with a surge of pride in the third set. However, this time he fell short (he had previously come back from similar situations eight times) due to his issues with serve effectiveness (58% on first serves) and his 49 unforced errors. In his 17 previous appearances at the US Open, Djokovic had failed to reach the quarterfinals only four times.

Olympics impact on US Open

Djokovic’s defeat is further evidence of the toll the Olympics may have taken on the top tennis players who excelled in the Paris Games. With the exits of Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Lorenzo Musetti – who was eliminated in the third round by local player Brandon Nakashima (6-2, 3-6, 6-3, and 7-6 (4) in 3 hours and 12 minutes) – none of the podium finishers (gold, silver, and bronze) have made it to the second week in New York. Even the fourth-place finisher, Felix Auger-Aliassime, was ousted early.

“I spent a lot of energy winning the gold, and I came to New York without feeling mentally and physically fresh. But since it’s the US Open, I tried my best. I didn’t have any physical problems. I just felt out of gas, which was evident in the way I played. From the start, from the first match, I never found my footing on this court,” said Djokovic, dismissing speculation about potential abdominal discomfort.

Who is men’s favorite at 2024 US Open?

Djokovic’s disappointing performance results in a loss of 1,900 points in the world rankings, dropping him to fourth place. He could still be overtaken by Daniil Medvedev (if he reaches the semifinals), who is the only player with a chance to surpass Alcaraz for third place, but to do so, Medvedev would need to win the tournament. The Russian now stands as one of the main favorites, along with the current number one, Jannik Sinner (top choice with most bookmakers), and Alexander Zverev, who defeated Argentina’s Tomás Martín Etcheverry: 5-7, 7-5, 6-1, 6-3 in a match that lasted 3 hours and 36 minutes, finishing at 2:36 a.m. on Saturday in New York. Zverev will face Nakashima next.

On Friday, 2022 finalist Casper Ruud managed to overturn a two-set deficit against China’s Juncheng Shang: 6-7 (1), 3-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-1. It was the first time Ruud had come back from such a dire situation. He will face one of the great American hopes, Taylor Fritz, in the round of 16, after Fritz defeated Argentina’s Francisco Comesaña (6-3, 6-4, 6-2 in two hours). The all-American clash between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe was won by the latter in a thrilling five-set match (4-6, 7-5, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-3 in 4 hours and 3 minutes). Big Foe, as he’s known, will face the hero of the day, Popyrin. Another fourth-round matchup will see Andrey Rublev take on Grigor Dimitrov. The Russian, continuing his strong form, dispatched Czech player Jiri Lehecka (6-3, 7-5, 6-4), while the Bulgarian defeated the Netherlands’ Tallon Griekspoor (6-3, 6-3, 6-1).