Analysts reveal every team’s % chance of winning Champions League 2025/26

With the Champions League league phase finished and the knockout phase taking shape, analysts have updated their projections for the 2025/26 tournament. Based on Euro Club Index-style rating models that factor squad strength, results, and draw structure, all 24 remaining clubs have now been assigned a percentage chance of lifting the trophy in Budapest.

These probabilities are not commentary or speculation. They are structural assessments of how difficult each team’s remaining path is, starting with whether they avoided February’s playoff round and how the bracket may unfold from the round of 16 onward.

Why finishing in the top eight reshaped the entire tournament

As you no doubt no know, the new Champions League format places enormous value on finishing in the top eight of the league phase. Those teams advance directly to the round of 16, avoid the two-legged playoff in February, and retain favorable seeding deeper into the competition. That said, last year’s winners PSG only just sneaked into the playoffs, then had to face the number one team (Liverpool), but found their magic for the run in.

Teams finishing ninth through 24th must survive a playoff round played over two legs on February 17–18 and February 24–25. Seeding matters there too: higher-ranked teams host the second leg, and matchups are determined by fixed pairing bands rather than open draws.

Once the playoffs conclude, the eight survivors join the top eight in the round of 16. From that point on, the margins shrink dramatically, which is why the models heavily reward clubs that avoided the extra hurdle.

Arsenal lead the field as Premier League dominance hardens

According to the projections, Arsenal are the clear favorites, given a 21.5% chance of winning the Champions League. Their flawless league-phase campaign and top seeding place them on the most stable path available. I’m not saying it’ll be easy, Gunners fans!

They are followed by Bayern Munich at 14.4% (placed in opposite half of draw) and Barcelona at 13.7%. Together, those three clubs account for nearly half of the model’s total title probability.

What stands out is how heavily English clubs populate the top tier. Manchester City (10%), Liverpool (8%), Chelsea (5.4%), and Tottenham Hotspur (0.7%) all remain alive.

Five Premier League clubs finished in the top eight – dominance with a twist, some say – with only Newcastle United forced into the playoff round. Collectively, English teams lost just nine games in the league phase, a level of consistency unmatched by any other country.

Spanish collapse explains the gap in title probabilities

The contrast with Spain is stark. Barcelona were the only LaLiga side to secure a top-eight finish. Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid both dropped into the playoff bracket after decisive defeats on the final matchday.

As a result, Los Blancos are given just a 7.1% chance of winning the tournament, while Atleti sit at 2.2%. Remember that this is also a reflection of path difficulty, as both clubs must play two extra matches, then potentially face tougher opponents immediately in the round of 16. Get through that and the picture changes… a lot!

Barcelona’s position is stronger, but not comfortable. Finishing fifth means they will meet one of AS Monaco, Qarabag FK, Paris Saint-Germain, or Newcastle. A clash with PSG, the reigning champions, is a very real possibility, which is great for the neutrals.

The playoff round tilts the bracket

The February playoff round is not just an inconvenience. It reshapes the entire knockout tree. Teams emerging from it often lose home advantage later and are more likely to face top-eight finishers immediately.

That is why clubs such as PSG (7.4%) and Inter (4%), both forced into the playoffs despite recent European pedigree, see their title odds compressed. Yes, yes, last year etc and so on.

What the numbers actually mean heading toward Budapest

Probability models are clearly often wrong. I mean which model predicted Benfica’s goalkeeper doing the unbelievable against Madrid? But the Champions League is structured to reward those that do well ahead of the knockout phase so here we are.

That explains why Arsenal and Bayern sit at the top, why the Premier League dominates the forecast despite uneven domestic form, and why Spain’s remaining contenders face such long odds.

Champions League 2025/26 – ECI title probabilities

1. Arsenal – 21.5%
2. Bayern Munich – 14.4%
3. Barcelona – 13.7%
4. Manchester City – 10.0%
5. Liverpool – 8.0%
6. Paris Saint-Germain – 7.4%
7. Real Madrid – 7.1%
8. Chelsea – 5.4%
9. Inter Milan – 4.0%
10. Atlético Madrid – 2.2%
11. Newcastle United – 1.8%
12. Borussia Dortmund – 1.0%
13. Sporting CP – 0.8%
14. Bayer 04 Leverkusen – 0.8%
15. Tottenham Hotspur – 0.7%
16. Juventus – 0.7%
17. Atalanta – 0.3%
18. Benfica – 0.2%
19. Club Brugge – 0.1%
20. Galatasaray – 0.1%

(others have been given 0%)

The draws on January 30 and then in February will not rewrite the hierarchy, but they’re likely to tighten it. And once the balls start being kicked again, we’ll see these percentages move.

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