Big Data forgets about Real Madrid in the Champions League

The Champions League is back. And this could be one of the most wide-open editions in years. Several exciting projects are poised to make their mark on the competition, including the first test of the post-Guardiola Manchester City, the return of Mourinho’s Real Madrid, a PSG side chasing a treble and an Arsenal team determined to make history. The ingredients could hardly be better.

Opta Analyst has thrown every advanced statistic from the 36 teams competing in the league phase into the mix. Its supercomputer then simulated every possible scenario to calculate each team’s chances of winning the Champions League, producing a numerical probability for the 10 teams most likely to lift the trophy in spring 2027.

Surprisingly, PSG and Real Madrid are the worst-ranked of Europe’s heavyweights. The French club, despite being the reigning champion, falls to fifth, with just a 7.1% chance of winning the Champions League for a third straight year.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, sits seventh. Its chances of winning the competition are closer to those of Manchester United and Inter Milan than to direct rivals such as Barcelona and Bayern Munich.

Arsenal and Bayern lead the way

Arsenal, who fell in a penalty shootout in last season’s competition, are the clear favorite this time around, with a 20.9% chance of winning the trophy. Bayern Munich are the only team close behind at 19.4%.

In other words, in roughly one out of every five simulations, Bayern were crowned champions, while another one in five produced Arsenal as the winner. The remaining simulations were divided among the other eight favorites.

The reigning Premier League and Bundesliga champions both came up short last season at the hands of the same opponent: Luis Enrique and his PSG side. This time, their experience, squad construction and the maturity of their projects have propelled them to the top of the probability rankings.

If Opta’s supercomputer is right, there is a very good chance the next Champions League winner will be wearing red.

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