Big data speaks: how Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man City, Liverpool... will finish in the Champions League

This season, the Champions League has undergone a significant transformation. The familiar group stage, which for so many years determined which teams advanced to the knockout rounds en route to the final, has been replaced. In its place is a new format where each team faces eight opponents, with a single table ranking all 36 participants.

This revamped format promises an unprecedented scoring rate and drama until the very last moment of the final match. With the first five matchdays completed, the initial round of the Champions League is entering its final sprint, bringing with it major surprises and leaving several of the presumed favorites in precarious positions. Real Madrid, Manchester City, and, above all, Paris Saint-Germain are prime examples.

The sixth matchday of the league phase, taking place this week, promises high-stakes excitement with countless possible outcomes and an almost indecipherable table. In this atmosphere of uncertainty, few are willing to make predictions. However, Opta’s supercomputer has no such hesitation. Using big data, it has simulated over 50,000 scenarios to predict the final standings for all 36 teams, including their expected points tallies.

Based on the points forecasted for each team at the end of the league phase and their current goal differences, we can sketch a potential table. While this projection may differ significantly from the final standings, it provides a glimpse into possible scenarios and hypothetical matchups for the next rounds. Below is the predicted table for the Champions League league phase after eight matchdays, according to the most probable points tallies assigned to each of the 36 participants and their current goal differences:

*The tiebreaker is decided by the goal difference existing before the start of the sixth round.

It’s worth noting that these standings are not definitive, as direct matchups and goal differences will cause significant fluctuations in the final positions. However, as a rough guide, Opta’s analysis suggests 16 points should secure a top-8 finish (and direct passage to the Round of 16), while 10 points should suffice for a top-24 finish, ensuring progression in the competition.

The road ahead for Spanish clubs

Barcelona

Under Hansi Flick, Barcelona has performed strongly, earning 12 points out of a possible 15. This puts them in a prime position to finish in the top eight, with only a 24% chance of missing out, according to Opta. However, they still face three tough games. This Wednesday, they visit Borussia Dortmund, followed by a trip to Benfica’s Estádio da Luz (January 21) and a final home match against Atalanta in Montjuïc (January 29). Barcelona’s current goal difference of +13 could be decisive. Opta predicts they’ll finish with 16 points, likely securing a top-8 spot.

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid made a giant leap toward advancing with a resounding 6-0 victory over Sparta Prague. Now sitting on nine points with a +2 goal difference, their favorable schedule makes a top-8 finish possible, which they achieve in 36.1% of simulations. Next up is Slovan Bratislava in Madrid this Wednesday, followed by a home game against Bayer Leverkusen (January 21) and an away match against Salzburg (January 29). Opta gives Atlético just a 0.3% chance of missing the top 24.

Real Madrid

The outlook is less optimistic for Real Madrid. After losing to Liverpool, they remain on six points from five games, leaving them with slim odds (2.1%) of avoiding the playoff round. Their next game against Atalanta on Tuesday will be crucial, followed by home matches against Salzburg (January 22) and Brest (January 29). Still, Madrid has a 90% chance of reaching the playoffs but only a 6.8% chance of falling outside the top 24.

Girona

Girona faces the steepest uphill battle. With just three points and a -5 goal difference, they have a mere 4.6% chance of staying in the competition. They’ll host Liverpool in Montilivi on Tuesday, travel to Milan (January 22), and finish with a home game against Arsenal (January 29). Only a miracle can extend Girona’s European dream.

Liverpool unstoppable, City can’t fail, PSG on the brink...

On the international stage, surprises abound and emotions run high, with several European football giants facing significant challenges and the urgent need to perform in the final three matchdays. A prime example is Paris Saint-Germain, which, ahead of Matchday 6, finds itself outside the top 24.

The French champions face the most dramatic situation among Europe’s elite clubs. With only four points from the first five matchdays, PSG would currently be eliminated from the Champions League. Opta’s simulations offer little hope: they have a 0% chance of breaking into the top eight in any of the 50,000 scenarios. However, they still retain a 58% likelihood of reaching the playoff round. To achieve this, they must overcome significant obstacles. First, Luis Enrique’s team faces Salzburg away on Tuesday. Their biggest test will come in Matchday 7, when Manchester City, also under pressure, visits Paris on January 22. PSG will conclude their campaign away at Stuttgart on January 29.

Manchester City

The reigning Premier League champions have also struggled. Dropping two points to Feyenoord in the final 15 minutes of a match has left Pep Guardiola’s team in one of their worst slumps in recent memory. With eight points from a possible 15, City enters the final stretch in a precarious position. To avoid the playoff round, they must perform exceptionally well in their remaining games, as they reach the top eight in only 15.5% of Opta’s simulations.

The road ahead is challenging. City visits Juventus this Wednesday, followed by a marquee clash against PSG on January 22. They will wrap up the league phase at home against Club Brugge on January 29.

Bayern Munich’s Revival and Inter Milan’s Momentum

Bayern Munich approaches the final sprint with renewed confidence. The Bavarian giants have recovered after key wins, including a victory over PSG in the previous matchday. Earlier defeats to Aston Villa and Barcelona put them in a tough spot, but their recent successes virtually guarantee a top-24 finish (with Opta assigning just a 0.1% chance of elimination). The team remains very much alive in the race for a top-eight finish, which they achieve in 53.9% of simulations. Bayern’s schedule also works in their favor, with matches against Shakhtar Donetsk on Tuesday, Feyenoord on January 22, and a home finale against an already-eliminated Slovan Bratislava on January 29.

Inter Milan’s situation is even more secure. The reigning Serie A champions are all but guaranteed a top-eight finish, with Opta giving them a 90.9% likelihood. Simone Inzaghi’s team has 13 points from 15 and has yet to concede a goal (+7 goal difference). Their remaining schedule includes a visit to Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday, a trip to Sparta Prague on January 22, and a home game against Monaco at the Giuseppe Meazza on January 29.

Liverpool: the (seemingly) unstoppable force

Finally, the team most likely to top the standings at the end of the league phase is Liverpool. Arne Slot’s side has been dominant in both the Premier League and the Champions League. With Opta giving them a 98.3% chance of finishing in the top eight and a 62.2% chance of taking first place overall, the Reds appear unstoppable.

Their remaining games are favorable, starting with a trip to Girona on Tuesday. They will then host Lille at Anfield on January 21 before concluding the first phase with an away match at PSV Eindhoven on January 29. Then to the knockout phase!

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