Dembélé or Yamal: the Ballon d’Or gala in Paris is here

Barely half a mile from the lavish Notre Dame, the iconic cathedral where Napoleon was crowned, there will be white smoke tonight at the Théâtre du Châtelet. The stage is set for the Ballon d’Or ceremony, the most prestigious prize in football, awarded annually by France Football. Starting at 12 p.m. ET, the world’s best players will walk the red carpet before the announcement of a winner unlike any other – Ousmane Dembélé and Lamine Yamal, the two clear frontrunners, are battling for the throne vacated by last year’s winner, Rodri.

The gala has caused a stir in France, as at the very same time, around 2 p.m. ET, Marseille and PSG will meet in Le Classique. The league clash, postponed a day earlier because of severe flood warnings, has been rescheduled by the LFP under regulations that left no available dates until December.

Secrecy around the winner

Hours before the gala, nobody dares predict the outcome. France Football has tightened confidentiality, canceling the usual pre-ceremony interviews with honorees that in the past triggered awkward absences and inevitable leaks. Even with two clear favorites, the magazine has locked down any hint, clue or whisper that could sap the suspense.

Paris turns its eyes to Dembélé

This is Ousmane Dembélé’s city. He once arrived under the shadow of Kylian Mbappé – only for football’s twists of fate to make him the face of Paris last May, when he led PSG to their first Champions League title. That 5-0 thrashing of Inter in Munich may tip the balance tonight, even if the split in votes leaves a narrow path for Yamal. PSG boast nine nominees, matching Real Madrid’s tally, and the presence of Vitinha, Achraf and Donnarumma could bolster the Parisian push.

Dembélé is on the verge of a prize he never imagined. When he debuted with Rennes a decade ago, world football was being reshaped by two other youngsters: Mbappé and Erling Haaland. For years their rivalry was pitched as the successor to Cristiano Ronaldo vs Lionel Messi, eclipsing other contenders. But now, the player long labeled a flawed talent, beset by injuries, has been transformed in Paris into the leader that Qatar’s billions had been chasing. Forty-eight goal contributions last season, and decisive performances on Europe’s biggest stage, turned him into PSG’s savior.

Yamal, the prodigy ready to crash the party

Yet the main threat comes from Lamine Yamal. At just 18, the Barcelona star could spoil Paris’s night. His magical left foot, unflappable temperament and precocity have earned him legitimate claims to the Ballon d’Or. His Champions League semifinal display against Inter, despite falling short of the final, confirmed his status as a player immune to pressure – a teenager unafraid of comparisons with Lionel Messi, the ultimate icon of these nights.

Yamal finished the season with 18 goals and 25 assists. His handicap is PSG’s Champions League triumph and the sway of a French favorite, but the Ballon d’Or has always thrived on subjectivity. Last year’s surprise win for Rodri proved that diverse voting patterns can open the door to unexpected outcomes – and Yamal’s dominance at such a young age could spark another.

PSG’s party, unless Yamal intervenes

A hundred journalists, rather than the previous 170, will decide the world’s best player, weighing individual awards, team success and factors such as fair play. In the other categories there is little suspense: PSG are expected to claim best team, Donnarumma to win the Yashin Trophy, and Luis Enrique best coach. For the first time, men’s and women’s awards will be mirrored, with England’s Alessia Russo and Chloe Kelly, winners of both the Champions League and the Euros, challenging Spain’s recent dominance through Mariona Caldentey, Alexia Putellas and Aitana Bonmatí.

From early morning, Paris has been dressed for the occasion, its heart stopped still, ready for a night that promises to be electric.

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