Kylian Mbappé’s alarming goal drought for Real Madrid: final game objective is clear

Neither as a substitute nor as a starter. Kylian Mbappé’s scoring career, which looked unstoppable three months ago, has almost ground to a halt. The Real Madrid superstar went a third straight game without scoring at the Pizjuán. It is nearly a month since his last goal, although he missed two games through injury. Looking further back, he has scored just once in LaLiga over the past three months – against Alavés, the opener in a 2-1 win on April 21. That goal was accompanied, to be fair, by his two strikes in the knockout tie against Bayern.

Three goals in three months. A meager return for a player who, midway through the season, seemed poised to make history.

Madrid have missed his goals. Take his penultimate LaLiga goal, on February 8 against Valencia, as the reference point. Until then, Madrid were averaging 2.26 goals per game, with 79 goals in 35 games. Mbappé was responsible for almost half of them: the Frenchman had 38 goals in 31 games, a pace that had him on track for Cristiano Ronaldo-style records of more than 60 goals in a single season. At times, he was even projected to surpass 70. Since then, however, Madrid have scored 36 goals in their past 20 games, an average of 1.8 per game. Mbappé has accounted for only 8.3% of them.

With their leading scorer in a drought, the rest of the team have had to step up. His teammates, who had previously been scoring 1.17 goals per game, have had to raise their output to 1.65 in this final stretch of the season to offset the French star’s poor run. Vinícius, with 14 goals, and Valverde, with eight, have shown more firepower than the Frenchman over the past three months. Güler has matched Kylian’s three goals.

It is a question of efficiency, not intensity. Mbappé is still trying with almost the same persistence as he did in the opening months of the season. He used to shoot every 17 minutes; now he does so every 18. But he is doing so with far less clarity. Up to early February, he had converted 24.7% of his shots into goals, 38 from 156. In recent months, by contrast, his conversion rate has collapsed to 6.25%. He has gone from scoring every 70 minutes to every 290.

It was not the exact turning point, but the change of coach has dented Mbappé’s numbers. Kylian scored 31 goals in 26 games this season under Xabi Alonso. Under Arbeloa, he has 12 goals in 19 games. Vinícius, by contrast, has followed the opposite trend. Under the coach from Tolosa, he was struggling: six goals in 27 games, including a three-month scoreless streak. Since Arbeloa took over on the Madrid bench, the Brazilian has scored 16 goals in 26 games.

A Pichichi sustained by early-season credit

That lone goal in three months has knocked Mbappé out of contention to retain the Golden Shoe and complicated his Pichichi race. Going into the final round, he still has a two-goal lead over Mallorca’s Muriqi, 24 to 22. The award does not appear to be in serious danger, but since his slide began he has squandered an eight-goal advantage, from 23-15. In the final third of the league season, his bid to finish as LaLiga’s top scorer for the second year running has survived thanks to the credit built up in the opening rounds.

He may retain the Pichichi, but with 24 LaLiga goals he will fall well short of the 31 he scored in his debut campaign last season. Across all competitions, he needs a hat trick against Athletic to match the 44 goals from his first year. That would mean equaling in one night his entire output from the past three months.

In raw terms, that is the picture. Adjusted for minutes, though, he is on course to improve on his first season as a Madrid player. Last season he scored every 107.8 minutes; this year, despite his recent drought, he is scoring every 86.

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