Mbappé and the 16.5% concern

Survive without Mbappé. That’s the mission now for Real Madrid. An unexpected obligation, born from a reckless challenge on Antonio Blanco. A lapse in judgement that ended with a straight red. No protest. Regret, yes – but also consequences. The French star accepted them, offering an immediate apology in the dressing room, both to his teammates and to Blanco himself (“It’s no problem, these things can happen,” said the Alavés player, who came through Madrid’s academy).

That doesn’t exempt him, though.

The match report lists it as a “ball challenge,” which softens the regulatory impact under article 130 – the one that applies here. But it means he’ll miss Athletic Club’s visit to the Bernabéu on Sunday. And judging by precedent, he’s also likely to be unavailable for Getafe away (Wednesday the 23rd). Even the match against Celta (May 3) is uncertain. Madrid must keep the title race alive, and reach El Clásico at Montjuïc still in contention – without Kylian.

That’s been the message ever since the slip-up against Valencia. The focus must stay on the present, not the horizon. The Champions League—Arsenal in this case—can’t be allowed to overshadow the domestic league. A “one game at a time” mindset more typical of Atlético has become Madrid’s new mantra. The goal: keep El Clásico on May 11 (4:15 p.m.) meaningful until kickoff. Win nine points and hope Barça drop some. Then, in Montjuïc, fight to turn the whole thing upside down.

But Madrid will have to face that path without their number 9. Both the shirt and the role. Without Mbappé’s 22 LaLiga goals. Without the 34.4% of the team’s 64 league goals he’s scored. The most plausible scenario now: Madrid will go into their clashes with Athletic and Getafe missing two-thirds of their firepower. Two tricky fixtures. Champions League-level Lions, and the grind of facing Bordalás and his troops. A battle without their top gun.

Real Madrid chasing a feat

Winning LaLiga title number 36 may not quite be a miracle—but it’s close. At least in statistical terms. Opta’s supercomputer gives Madrid a 4% chance against Arsenal – the same odds Nadal had against Medvedev in the 2022 Australian Open. BeSoccer Pro estimates Madrid’s chances of winning the league at 16.5%. Barça lead the pack at 82%, and Atleti trail with 1.5%. Still, the message is clear. The latest to voice it: Davide Ancelotti.

“Both are difficult, but we’re going to try both. We have the quality and confidence to do it – but we have to earn it.

“Talent alone won’t be enough… and some things will also need to go our way. But make no mistake: we’re going to give everything. In the league and in the Champions League.” In LaLiga, it’ll be an exercise in survival – without Mbappé.

Endrick’s time?

There’s no doubt about the lineup against Arsenal: the front three and Bellingham. But against Athletic, Ancelotti will need to explore options. All eyes turn to Endrick. A man – or perhaps a boy – for a man. The only natural striker left in the squad. Even more of a pure number 9 than Kylian in terms of position. He’s used to making the most of his chances... and Mbappé’s red card could open a golden door for the kid from Taguatinga. The coaching staff is thrilled with his attitude, instincts, and finishing.

That combination has given him the best goals-per-minute ratio in the squad. A strike every 82 minutes. He has seven goals in 575 minutes – most in the Copa del Rey, where he’s joint-top scorer (five goals) alongside Julián. His most recent victim was Real Sociedad, and with little left to gain in the cup, LaLiga could now offer a new stage – thanks to Mbappé’s suspension.

Or maybe not...

Endrick isn’t the only option to fill Kylian’s boots. There’s also the possibility of going back to the diamond midfield, with Bellingham as the attacking hinge and Vinicius and Rodrygo providing the samba up front – backed by a three-man midfield to stabilize everything. Another choice: Brahim Díaz, the 12th man. Often the go-to when one of the main forwards is missing. The Fifth Fantastic.

Bringing him in would allow the formation to stay unchanged, but would require Vinicius or Rodrygo to play as a false 9. Mobile, yes – but still strikers in that shape, with Brahim on either wing. Several options. One reality: Madrid will have to fight for the league without the Frenchman. That 16.5% chance – without Mbappé.

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