Opta computer gives Arsenal and Manchester City chances to win Premier League and results will surprise you
All eyes will be on the Etihad this Sunday as Arsenal head into enemy territory looking stop the bleeding and taking a commanding lead on Manchester City.
The beautiful thing about math, is that numbers never lie. In the world of soccer, that may not always be the case. Stats can tell you one story, while the score paints a different picture. With just over a month to go in the Premier League season, league leaders Arsenal are the overwhelming favorites according to Opta’s supercomputer, but that could all change this weekend.
Supercomputer still siding with Arsenal
After seven months in pole position in the Premier League, Arsenal are looking like their grasp on the top spot in the table is as shaky as ever. They have been spiraling since their Carabao Cup loss to Manchester City right before the international break. That was the first title they lost out on to spoil their hopes for a quadruple title run.
After a long break with the taste of a final defeat in their mouths, they were knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton. After a slip up against Bournemouth on Saturday, everyone seems to be doubting Arsenal’s ability to hang on to their lead in the Premier League. Everyone, except the Opta supercomputer who sees them as clear favorite to lift the Premier League title for the first time since the 2002-03 season.
According to the supercomputer, Arsenal have an 86.98% chance of holding off Manchester City and breaking a drought that has stretched over two decades. City is the only other contender that could give the Gunners a run for their money, but they have just a 13.02% chance of winning the title.
What’s left
If you were just to look at the percentages, you would almost guarantee that Mikel Arteta’s men would wind up champions, but body language, form and recent history don’t tell as convincing of a story. Arsenal have a reputation of being the lovable losers. Arteta is looking ever more nervy in each press conference, and their match against City is coming at the exact wrong time.
Up by six points, having played one more match than City, Arsenal have the match at the Etihad this Sunday, then vs. Newcastle, vs. Fulham, @ West Ham, vs. Burnley and finish of the season @ Crystal Palace.
City have matches @ Burnley, @ Everton, vs. Brentford, @ Bournemouth, vs. Aston Villa and a match against Crystal Palace they still have to make up. While there are still a lot of points up for grabs for both sides, Sunday’s match should skew the percentages heading into the final stretch of the season.
Arsenal are undefeated in their last five league matches against City, with two wins and three draws. Guardiola has admitted that “if they beat us it’s over, if we draw also.”
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