Photo finish: What do Arsenal and Manchester City need to win the Premier League?
The Gunners and Cityzens will battle for the title until the final breath of the season. Arsenal controls its own destiny, but one slip-up could reopen the door for Pep Guardiola’s side.
After 22 years without a Premier League title, Arsenal has the chance to finally end the drought this season. But right behind them in the Premier League table sits Manchester City, the club that, alongside Liverpool, has dominated English soccer under Pep Guardiola over the last eight years.
Fortunately for the North London side, the title remains entirely in its own hands heading into the final stretch.
As things stand, Arsenal leads the table with 79 points, just two ahead of second-place City on 77. For the Gunners to guarantee the title, they must beat already-relegated Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on Monday, May 18.
A victory would move Arsenal to 82 points and force City to beat Bournemouth the following day to keep the race alive.
The situation is far from comfortable for Mikel Arteta’s side, especially after losing Ben White to injury. If Arsenal beats Burnley, the club would then need to finish the job on May 24 away to Crystal Palace.
Manchester City, meanwhile, enters the run-in with momentum after winning the FA Cup and will look to pile pressure on Arsenal in road games against Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
If both teams finish level on points after 38 matches, the tiebreakers strongly favor City. Goal difference and head-to-head results currently give Guardiola’s team the edge, meaning Arsenal cannot afford to ease up.
What does Arsenal need to win the Premier League?
Win its final two games
If Arsenal beats both Burnley and Crystal Palace, it will finish with 85 points and automatically secure the title regardless of City’s results.
Win one and draw one (83 points)
Arsenal would then need Manchester City to either lose or draw at least one of its remaining matches. If City wins both games, the teams would finish level on points and Guardiola’s side could win the title on goal difference.
Earn only 3 points total (82 points)
Arsenal would need City to collect no more than four points from its final two matches, meaning one win and one draw at most.
Lose both games (79 points)
In that scenario, Arsenal would need City to earn no more than one point from its remaining six available.
What does Manchester City need to win the Premier League?
Win both games and hope Arsenal slips
If City beats Bournemouth and Aston Villa, reaching 83 points, Guardiola’s team would become champions if Arsenal either draws or loses at least one of its remaining matches.
Finish level on points with Arsenal
If Arsenal earns four points from its final two games while City wins both, the teams would finish tied on 83 points. The title would then likely be decided on goal difference, where City currently holds a narrow advantage (+43 to Arsenal’s +42). City also has the edge in the season head-to-head series.
Hope Arsenal loses both games
If Arsenal collapses and stays on 79 points, City would only need one win and one draw from its final two games to finish ahead by two points, 81 to 79.
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