What result does Brazil need to qualify for the Copa América quarterfinals? All possible combinations

After a lethargic start to the 2024 Copa América, Brazil finally got into their stride in their second outing in Group D, beating Paraguay 1-4. A result that put the Seleção second in the group, two points behind leaders Colombia - who they face next...

Tuesday’s game against Colombia will undoubtedly be the toughest test so far for Dorival’s team. The Tricolor have not been beaten since February 2022. Since then, Néstor Lorenzo’s men have beaten the likes of Spain, Germany, Mexico - as well as beating Brazil in matchday 5 of the Conmebol 2026 World Cup qualifiers in November last year.

Brazil to face a Colombia side unbeaten in over two years

After that Colombia embarked on an extraordinary run which has seen them winning all of their last 10 games in both official and unofficial competition.

The same can’t be said for Brazil, despite being among the favorites in this edition of the Copa América have looked disjointed and while there is no denying they have the individual talent, they don’t seem to gel as a team. Much of that has been reflected in their recent results - they failed to win any of their last four World Cup qualifiers, suffering three straight defeats before Christmas to Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina.

But when all is said and done, Brazil are Brazil... and looking at positively, they can still come good and have the ability to do it. In their favor, they are second in the group and three points clear of Costa Rica and the 1-4 victory in the last game gives them a comfortable cushion in terms of goal difference. They might need that if they find themselves up against the ropes on Tuesday.

What result does Brazil need against Colombia?

The top two teams from each of the four groups qualify for the quarter finals and Brazil currently occupy the second qualifying berth in their group. Victory over Colombia in the final group game would leave Brazil on seven points, meaning they would finish as the winners of Group D. A draw on Tuesday would give Dorival’s men five points - enough to secure a place on the next round but not as the leaders. It would leave them on five points, two behind Colombia. The price to pay for that would be a tougher draw in the next round.

Brazil could still advance even if they lose to Colombia. Costa Rica is the only team who could realistically put a spanner in the works for the Seleção. Gustavo Alfaro’s could still nudge Brazil out of second, although that would entail a lot of different circumstances coming together. If Brazil lose, they only way Costa Rica could sneak into second place is on goal difference.

Brazil with a superior goal difference

Right now, Brazil’s is +3 while Costa Rica’s is -3. So if Colombia beats Brazil 0-1, Costa Rica would need to beat Paraguay by six goals. Considering that they have yet to score a single goal in two outings, that doesn’t seem very likely. Mathematically, Paraguay could also still qualify at Brazil’s expense but their goal difference is even worse that Costa Rica’s so it would be a total shock if that were to happen, to put it mildly.

Finishing first or second in the group does make a difference. If Brazil finishes first, they will meet the runners-up from Group C in the quarter finals. At the moment, that is the United States. If Brazil end the group stage in second place, they will probably face Uruguay next - the tournament’s most in-form team and the top scorers with eight goals and just one against. Given the choice, it’s clear who the Canarinha would prefer to face in the quarter finals. Before that however, they must make sure they get a result against Colombia.

The 2024 Copa América matchday 3 Group D game between Brazil and Colombia will be played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California on Tuesday 2 July, kicking off at 6 p.m. PDT / 9 p.m. EDT.