Before Spain’s first game, AI delivers a bold World Cup verdict

Can a team be considered the favorite to win a World Cup despite being eliminated in the first knockout round of each of the last three editions? Artificial intelligence says yes. And if AI says so, perhaps it’s worth paying attention before tossing that prediction into the virtual trash can.

Spain opens its World Cup campaign today carrying the credentials of reigning European champion and a 31-match unbeaten streak in official competition. Standing across from La Roja will be Cape Verde, making its first-ever appearance at a World Cup (follow the game live on AS.com).

It is a matchup of contrasts, a game some might dismiss as lacking spark, even if it is being played in the home city of Coca-Cola. But it is wise not to get complacent. Otherwise, you may end up looking foolish when a last-minute header leaves you without the victory you thought was already secured (just ask Switzerland after its draw with Qatar the other day).

First meeting for Spain and Cape Verde

Spain and Cape Verde have never met before. Their soccer histories could only have intersected after February 6, 1982, the date the African nation’s soccer federation was founded. When the two countries first appeared together in the FIFA rankings on Dec. 31, 1992, Spain sat 15th while Cape Verde was 135th. When they take the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this afternoon, La Roja will do so ranked second in the world behind Argentina, while the Blue Sharks occupy 67th place, between Albania and the United Arab Emirates.

That gap in the rankings helps guide AI-based predictions for the tournament being played across the United States, Mexico and Canada. Opta, the global leader in sports statistics and data, used its supercomputer to run 25,000 simulations of the World Cup that began Thursday at Estadio Azteca.

The verdict? Spain emerged as the most likely champion.

Luis de la Fuente’s side lifted the trophy in 15.96% of those simulations. France followed at 13.28%, ahead of England (10.18%), Argentina (9.96%) and Portugal (7.98%). Opta was so confident in its projections that it shared them with FIFA president Gianni Infantino during the events surrounding the tournament’s opening.

“If Opta says so, then if Opta says so...” the Swiss executive replied with a smile.

De la Fuente remains cautious

“Being a favorite isn’t a handicap, but are we really more favored than France, Brazil or Argentina?” De la Fuente asked in an interview with this newspaper ahead of the tournament.

“The most important game is Cape Verde,” the Spain coach quickly added, attempting to cool the growing excitement and predictions, regardless of what the technology suggests.

For today’s match in Atlanta, Opta’s model also strongly favors Spain. La Roja wins in 87.2% of the 25,000 simulations, compared to 4.8% for Cape Verde and 8.1% ending in a draw.

De la Fuente has all 26 players available after Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal and Víctor Muñoz recovered from the minor issues that limited them during training camp in Las Rozas. The coach is expected to stick with the lineup that defeated Peru in a friendly in Puebla.

It is a reliable starting XI capable of maintaining the level Spain displayed throughout qualifying, where it averaged 9.7 shots on target per game, more than any other national team.

But inside Spain’s camp in Chattanooga, Tennessee, all those numbers are considered history. Nobody there is blindly following the verdict of a supercomputer.

And not only in Chattanooga.

“Technology is never neutral. Whoever controls artificial intelligence can impose their moral vision on the world,” said an American named Robert Prevost, better known globally as Pope Leo XIV.

Some, following Infantino’s logic regarding Opta, may be tempted to respond:

“If the Pope says so...”

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