What are Mexico’s chances of winning the 2026 World Cup?
Mexico’s impressive group-stage showing has pushed El Tri up Opta’s ranking of this summer’s title contenders.
For the Mexican national team, things have changed dramatically since the disappointment of crashing out in the group stage at Qatar 2022. Now, three and a half years later, El Tri is riding a World Cup high.
History already made - but how far can Mexico go?
Javier Aguirre’s side has grown throughout this summer’s tournament, finishing the group stage with a perfect record for the first time in national team history. And Mexico’s impressive performances are reflected in soccer statisticians’ assessment of the co-hosts’ prospects in the knockout stages.
Now that the opening phase of the 2026 World Cup is complete, Mexico has climbed Opta Analyst’s rankings in terms of title odds. When the finals kicked off, El Tri sat 20th out of 48 teams in the race for the championship.
Today, Mexico has risen to 13th. Per Opta, France leads the way with an 18.7% chance of lifting its third world title - Les Bleus’ first since Russia 2018.
Mexico’s World Cup odds
The Mexicans, who face Ecuador in the round of 32 on Tuesday, currently have a 60.03% probability of reaching the last 16 by defeating the South Americans. The same projections give Mexico a 27.48% chance of making the quarterfinals, an 11.52% shot at reaching the semifinals, and a 4.81% likelihood of playing in the World Cup final.
Overall, the Mexican national team holds a 1.67% chance of claiming the nation’s first ever world title.
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