Coronavirus: USA deaths from Covid-19 predicted into July

Analysis by the IHME in Washington shows when countries and regions can expect their first day without a new death caused by the virus to come.

Coronavirus: USA deaths from Covid-19 predicted into July

A study published by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington USA, predicts that 21 May will be a key date on the Spanish calendar. This will be the day, they say, where the country will experience no new deaths related to the coronavirus currently wreaking havoc.

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Dates of no Covid-19 deaths predicted

This analysis and predictions have been carried out with data obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO), local and state governments, and based on government statements on social distancing measures and other advice.

It is important to recognise that this research has changed significantly in just a few weeks. In fact, on 9 April, based on available information at the time, the analysis predicted that there would not be a day in Spain without deaths until 8 June, so it looks like a hugely positive step has been taken. However, it also stated at that time that Covid-19 would cause 19,209 lives in the country by the time we reached that June milestone. Tragically, there have already been over 22,000 deaths, and the revised prediction is 25,104.

Arlington county Fire Department paramedic Ben Bieber (R) and Brian Holmes unload a patient with respiratory issues from an ambulance at a hospital in Arlington, Virginia on April 9, 2020.

Overall, the study forecasts that Spain will have the third highest number of deaths across Europe from the disease, behind Italy, with 26,867 deaths, and the 31,929 deaths in the United Kingdom.

The predictions in total number of deaths are worse that previously believed in what is being described as the ‘first wave’ of the pandemic, with many now accepting that once the various lockdown measures are lifted, it is possible that further cases will emerge.

Meanwhile, in the United States - the country with the highest number of infections and deaths in the world and currently with the second most deaths - it is estimated that this wave will kill a total of 67,641 people, down from the 81,766 assumed a few weeks ago.

The majority of the regions in Spain, as well as many across Europe, have already reached or passed the expected peaks of infection cases. The study consider several territories and also breaks some countries down into regional predictions.

Forecasting ’0’ Covid-19 deaths

Using the study here is a selection of areas and their predicted first day without any new deaths due to coronavirus:

Spain - 21 May (previously 8 June)

UK - 2 June (unchanged)

USA - 2 July (previously 14 June)

Italy - 19 May (unchanged)

Germany - 21 May (previously 2 June)

France - 19 May (previously 8 May)

Check out the rest of the data for other countries and regions here.

An important factor to note with any predictions like this is that they are based on the advice from governments being followed. If this is not done, or if an unexpected event occurs, then obviously there figures would be amended to reflect the change.