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When will we know if Newsom is recalled?

Once voting has ended, it is unlikely the full count will be known before October, but a one-sided vote would make the final count a formality.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom waves to supporters after speaking to union workers and volunteers on election day at the IBEW Local 6 union hall on September 14, 2021 in San Francisco.
Justin SullivanAFP

Despite incumbent Gavin Newsom having a healthy lead, nothing is certain and if there is one thing that people should remember about US politics in the last five years, then it should be not to trust the polls.

The deadline for voting is 8pm PDT on Tuesday 14 September. A preliminary winner is not expected for hours into the counting process, as each county deals with counting and reporting in different ways.

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When could a result be known?

Exit polling of a landslide win for Newsom would certainly spell the end of a meaningful count.

However, the closer an election, the longer it will be until a clear winner can be announced. Clearly, the tighter the race, the more impactful each vote becomes.

Most counties will count up all the votes from in-person ballots on Tuesday night, giving updates at different periods of the night. Different states have different regulations for when this will be, however. Following our live feed will keep you updated on the counts as they happen.

The longest it could take to know a full result would be 30 days, as that is the maximum time counties have to count all the votes. The California secretary of state will certify the results on October 22. If the governor is recalled, he will need to vacate the office by that date and the winning replacement candidate will be sworn in.

What are the polls saying one hour before the end of voting?

Polling website FiveThirtyEight has been keeping track of aggregate support for each candidate, as well as Newsom's chances of being voted out.

As of September 14, as an aggregate of the surveys provided, Newsom will stay as governor with 57.3% of the votewhile the remove vote stands at 41.5%. This gives him a 15.8 point lead over being removed.

The bounce in support comes at the same time as the distribution of the second Golden State Stimulus at the end of August. Every two weeks, a payment of between $500 and $1,100 will arrive in eligible Californians bank accounts. In total, it will reach 9 million people. There has also been positive news for Newsom, as initial exit polling has the pandemic as the big reason for voting, something most Californians think Newsom has done at least a decent job at managing.


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