Will Russia invade Ukraine?

Since early December, tensions between Russia and Ukraine and have been escalating. The world has watched as Russia has moved more troops closer to the border with its neighbor and as the US has sent more than ninety tons of "lethal aid," otherwise known as weapons. In the case of a Russian invasion, the United States and NATO, have pledged support Ukraine, further frustrating Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The conflict began in 2021, when Vladimir Putin made it clear that Ukraine joining NATO was a red line that he did not want to see crossed. In December, Putin spoke to this issue saying that if Ukraine were to join NATO, the move would "undoubtedly be followed by the deployment there of military contingents, bases and weapons that threaten us."

On 7 December President Biden spoke over video with Russian leader Vladimir Putin "to discuss a range of issues on the U.S.-Russia agenda." One of the main topics discussed between the leaders was the escalation of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine. Since the talks began, US Intelligence has confirmed the presence of more than 100,000 Russian troops stationed in the area. The White House reported on 11 February that Russia had moved more troops into the area, as reports came out that Putin had made a decision to invade Ukraine.

 The news came after PBS Foreign Affairs Correspondent Nick Schifrin took to social media to report that his sources told him that "The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and has communicated that decision to the Russian military."

Additionally, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told the media during a press conference that more troops have been moved to the Russian border and that the White House is not ruling out the possibility that an invasion could occur during the Olympic Games being hosted by China.

Earlier in the day, the White House hosted a call with allied governments leaders from the European Union and NATO. During the call the “leaders expressed their concern about Russia’s continued build-up of military forces around Ukraine and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Who was on the call with the White House?

The United Kingdom has urged all citizens still in Ukraine to leave while "commercial means are still available." Japan, Latvia, Norway and the Netherlands have all taken similar moves.

What is the US prepared to do if Russia invades Ukraine?

Over the last few months Sullivan has made it clear that should Russia invade Ukraine, the US military and its NATO allies would provide support to the Ukrainian government including defensive material. When asked if the public should prepare for the sending of US troops, Sullivan said that there are and have been troops in the region for many years and that the military is more focused on what "additional capabilities can we provide to ensure that they feel strong and confident in their own sovereignty and territorial integrity."

China and Russia: a "friendship with no limits"

The White House and the European Union have made public statements warning the Kremlin that if they make the decision to invade Ukraine they will be hit with severe economic sanctions. However, the Chinese government has made it clear over the last week that they stand willing to back fill Russia economically for any negative toll imposed on them through Western sanctions.

State Department spokesman Ned Price told the media that the US is prepared to use "an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign companies, including those in China, doing their best to back fill U.S. export control actions, to evade them, to get around them."

However, this does not seem to worry that Chinese who released a joint statement with Russia saying that the "Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no ”forbidden“ areas of cooperation."

The two countries said that the strengthening of their bilateral cooperation "is neither aimed against third countries nor affected by the changing international environment and circumstantial changes in third countries." China seems unfazed by threats from the United States. While, the US could deploy sanctions known as "state-killers" the Chinese government is calling the US' bluff as their could be serious economic consequences for them because of their dependence on Chinese goods.