Is Russia considering invading Ukraine? Why would Russia invade Ukraine?
President Putin has amassed more than 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border in recent weeks, and reports suggest that a military offensive is imminent.
The United States and its allies have received new intelligence suggesting that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already decided to invade the neighbouring nation of Ukraine.
The New York Times reports that Putin has "accelerated his timetable" in recent days and Russian forces could initiate an invasion on Ukrainian soil within the next week.
In a White House press conference on Friday, US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan confirmed that a Russian advance into Ukraine was now a distinct possibility and that Putin’s forces were "in a position to be able to mount a major military action.”
"We obviously cannot predict the future, we don't know exactly what is going to happen, but the risk is now high enough and the threat is now immediate enough that [leaving] is prudent," Sullivan remarked, in relation to the administration’s advice that all US citizens should leave Ukraine immediately.
CNN report that Russia could launch an invasion before the closing ceremony of the Winter Olympics currently ongoing in China, which is due to end on 20 February.
Why would Russia want to invade Ukraine?
The complicated history of Russian statehood and the politics of Eastern Europe are central to Russia’s objectives in Ukraine. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 saw the Ukrainian SSR declare Ukraine an independent nation, forming the most populous area to split from Moscow.
Read more
Despite the fact that the two nations share deep cultural ties and a 1,200-mile border, Ukraine has slowly shifted more toward the West in recent years, becoming more integrated with the US and its allies. There is even reports that Ukraine may one day join NATO.
As Putin amassed troops at the Ukrainian border in recent months, Russia released a list of demands to the West which includes a pledge to not admit Ukraine to NATO. Russia’s ambitions on the Ukrainian border may be an attempt to redress a shifting dynamic in Europe that could see Ukraine move more closely aligned with the West.
Would the United States intervene if Russian invaded Ukraine?
On Friday President Biden called for all American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately as the threat of hostile Russian actions grows greater. Biden reiterated his stance that the US would not send in troops to rescue any Americans who get caught up in potential conflict.
"American citizens should leave now," Biden said in an interview with NBC News. "We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly."
When asked if there was any circumstances in which the US would be drawn into a military conflict, he replied: "There's not. That's a world war when Americans and Russia start shooting at one another. We're in a very different world than we've ever been."
In January Secretary of State Antony Blinken travelled to Europe in response to the burgeoning conflict on the Russia-Ukraine border. Blinken had meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Foreign Secretary Dmytro Kuleba but officials involved were unsure of exactly how far Putin is willing to go to achieve his goals.
Commenting on the situation from the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, Blinken told reporters: “It’s not clear what Russia’s central demand is.”
Speaking to the New York Times, Russian foreign policy analyst Fyodor Lukyanov reiterated that sentiment: “The expert opinion that I can authoritatively declare is: Who the heck knows?”