Another federal shutdown? Polymarket says the odds are above 80% for the government to shut down

There has already been one federal shutdown during Donald Trump’s second term of office, and bookmakers are expecting another before January is out.

The government closed for 43 days between October and November after as Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation for the 2026 fiscal year. The funding package was passed by the House with a 222-209 vote on November 12 but only covers the period up to January 30, which means that both parties much reach another agreement to meet agency costs through the end of 2026.

If an agreement on the spending bill isn’t reached by the end of this week, government could be shut down again.

Funding for the Department of Homeland Security divides senators

Tensions between both parties hit new heights following the events in Minnesota, with two fatal shootings by federal agents in little over a fortnight. The latest incident, in which Alex Pretti, a 37 year-old protester was shot and killed in Minneapolis, has deepened the rift and even caused fractures within the Republican Party.

Some Senate Democrats, among them Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have stated that they will not support the funding package unless ICE is reformed. Meanwhile Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen and Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey have both voiced their concern about how ICE agents are “terrorizing cities all across the country.”

A number of Republicans, including Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, are calling for a thorough investigation into the Minneapolis shootings.

The debate over whether ICE should be reformed has shortened odds of a another government shutdown. At the start of the year, odds hovered around 30% but as the January 30 deadline draws closer, the chance has shot up to close to 80%.

Senate to vote this week

Six of 12 bills have already cleared the House and Senate but it is the remaining six that could determine whether government is shut down or not. The Senate will vote on them this week - they include funding for the departments of Defense; Labor, Health and Human Services and Education; Transportation and Housing and Urban Development; State; and Treasury. The key will be whether a funding package for the Department of Homeland Security, which includes Border Patrol and ICE is agreed or not.

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