Christopher Wolf, environmental scientist, “Climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted”

Just over a decade ago, nations around the world signed onto the Paris Agreement, a legally binding treaty that set long-term goals to cap global warming at 1.5ºC above preindustrial levels. While the average is typically evaluated using 20-year averages, “climate model simulations suggest the recent 12-month breach indicates the long-term average temperature increase is at or near 1.5 degrees,” Christopher Wolf, a scientist at Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates in the US, told the newspaper at Oregon State University.

“It’s likely that global temperatures are as warm as, or warmer than, at any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing faster than many scientists predicted,” he pointed out.

Hothouse Earth: “We’re not there yet — but we’re very close”

Wolf was part of an international collaboration that published a paper earlier this year warning that the Earth is at greater risk of triggering climate tipping points than once believed. “Crossing even some of the thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory with long-lasting and possibly irreversible consequences,” he says.

Perhaps more concerning is that “policymakers and the public remain largely unaware of the risks posed by what would effectively be a point-of-no-return transition,” Wolf noted. “While averting the hothouse trajectory won’t be easy, it’s much more achievable than trying to backtrack once we’re on it.”

Time is of the essence to raise awarness and stop global warming and the resulting climate change. “Our paper shows that we’re not there yet — but we’re very close.” Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and coauthor of the study, shared with YaleEnvironment360.

16 climate tipping elements and feedback loops

The various subsystems of Earth’s climate system are tightly connected. They are broken into two categories; core tipping elements, that affect the entire globe, and regional tipping elements, that while the main impacts would be local they would also have global impacts.

The core tipping elements include the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Arctic sea ice, boreal permafrost, and mountain glaciers. As well, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Amazon forest, and the boreal forest biome.

The climate researchers say that the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets may already be tipping. The Amazon rainforest, boreal permafrost, mountain glaciers could be on the brink of tipping.

One example of a feedback loop that they give is ice melt from Greenland could help weaken the AMOC even more. This would cause changes to the tropical rain belts which could result in parts of the Amazon rainforest converting into savanna.

“The AMOC is already showing signs of weakening, and this could increase the risk of Amazon dieback, with major negative impacts on carbon storage and biodiversity,” said William Ripple of Oregon State University, the lead author of the study. “Carbon released by an Amazon dieback would further amplify global warming and interact with other feedback loops.”

“We need to act quickly on our rapidly dwindling opportunities to prevent dangerous and unmanageable climate outcomes,” he warned.

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