Concerned 2025 tax refunds are lower than last year? This is the reason why the average IRS check is smaller

With tax season in full swing, you may have noticed something unsettling if you’ve already filed your 2025 return and been reading the news. The average tax refund is down sharply compared to last year, and that’s not exactly a fun surprise when you’re counting on that check coming in.

As of mid-February, the average refund sat at $2,169, according to the IRS. That’s down about 32% from the $3,207 average refund issued at the same point last year. And with prices on, well, everything still pinching wallets, a smaller-than-expected refund can feel like insult tacked onto injury.

But before you start rewriting your budget or wondering if you made a costly mistake on your return, there’s more to the story.

Are refunds really shrinking for everyone?

First, the drop in average refunds so far doesn’t automatically mean your personal refund will be smaller. What the IRS is reporting right now is an early-season snapshot, not the final word.

The pattern is the same almost every year: people with simpler tax returns tend to file first, while those with more complicated situations – think side gigs, investments, or small businesses — usually wait until closer to the April 15 deadline. Simpler returns often come with smaller refunds, which drags down the average early on. As higher-income taxpayers and filers with more deductions and credits get their returns in, that average climbs.

In fact, the IRS itself says these numbers tend to even out as more returns come in – which is the agency’s polite way of saying: don’t panic yet.

What’s behind the slower start to filing season?

Another factor shaping the numbers so far is that fewer people have filed their taxes compared to this time last year. Through February 14, about 33 million tax returns had been submitted, a drop of 5% from the same period in 2024. That might not sound dramatic, but fewer returns in the system means the average refund data is skewed even further by who’s filing – and who’s not.

Part of the slowdown could be due to delays in getting tax documents, especially for small business owners and people with investments. Some taxpayers are still waiting on forms like brokerage statements, which means they’re holding off on filing.

When will you get your tax refund in 2025?

Once you do file, the IRS says you should get your refund within 21 calendar days if you file electronically. Paper returns take longer because they require an actual human to process them, which can add several weeks.

The IRS offers its Where’s My Refund? tool, which lets you check your refund status 24 hours after filing electronically. If you file on paper, though, you’ll need to wait four weeks before your return even enters the system.

There’s also the question of IRS staffing, which could cause further delays. Some tax experts warn that job cuts ordered during the Trump administration may still be slowing down certain areas of the agency’s operations, including refund processing. The uncertainty being created by Trump and Elon Musk is certainly not helping the average American.

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