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Inflation: How much will grocery prices increase in 2024 according to experts?

The USDA is forecasting that inflation on food products will continue to slow in 2024 but will most likely still be above the historical average.

Update:
USDA forecasting more food inflation relief in 2024
SIPHIWE SIBEKOREUTERS

American consumers saw prices rise in the wake of the pandemic. One of the places it was felt the most was when they went to the supermarket to buy groceries. Since 2022 though, food inflation has come down significantly.

While overall it will most likely still be above the historical average, the US Department of Agriculture is forecasting that inflation on at-home food products will continue to slow in 2024, with certain food groups getting cheaper year-over-year.

Inflation: How much will grocery prices increase in 2024 according to experts?

The current USDA prediction is that food-at-home prices will increase 1.6 percent in 2024, with a prediction interval of -4 percent to 7.8 percent. That’s less than half that of the previous year, with grocery store or supermarket food purchases forecast to be 5.2 percent more expensive than 2023, and 11.4 percent in 2022.

What groceries will cost more and cost less?

According to the USDA, Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook one of the groups that are forecast to experience the biggest price increases in 2024 are meats, rising 5.6 percent, with a prediction interval of -1.7 percent and 13.3 percent. Meanwhile, the price of eggs is predicted to drop by 14.7 percent, with a prediction interval of -31.7 percent and 7.5 percent.

Economic Research Service Food Price Outlook 2024

Meats 5.6%
Poultry 3.3%
Eggs-14.7%
Dairy products -0.6%
Fresh fruit and vegetables 0.4%
Processed fruit and vegetables 4.7%
Cereals and bakery products 0.5%

Typically, the price of food can be volatile primarily due to weather events ruining crops or disrupting supply chains. However, there are general price swings from day to day as well. For those looking to pinch pennies when you go grocery shopping, there are certain days you may wish to avoid, and not just because of the crowds.

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