Is a recession looming in the US? These are the jobs that hold up best during an economic crisis, according to experts

As the fallout from the White House’s push to impose sweeping tariffs on major financial institutions and organizations continues, warnings of a potential recession are becoming more frequent. This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released an economic forecast that did not predict a recession this year but increased the probability to 40 percent.

Nevertheless, IMF economists are predicting a slowdown in the US economy’s growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.8 percent, down nearly a point from last year. IMF economists explained that the US economy is in a strong position, with a “labor market that is still very robust.”

“We have seen some signs of weakening and slowdown in the U.S. economy, even before the tariff announcements,” said Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, the Director of the IMF’s Research Department.

A recession would likely lead to an increase in unemployment, which currently stands at around 4 percent. If consumer demand drops, businesses may begin to lay off workers to cut costs and protect their margins. These layoffs can lead to a further decrease in consumer demand, which can lead to further increases in unemployment until the economic situation stabilizes.

A look back at the 2008 Financial Crisis

Recessions also tend to have widespread effects across sectors, meaning that regardless of one’s industry, layoffs may come. This often leaves workers across sectors vulnerable, even those in government, during an economic slowdown.

In January 2007, the national unemployment rate stood at 4.6 percent. By October 2009, the unemployment rate would rise to 10 percent, the highest level seen in the 21st century until the COVID-19 pandemic. However, not all industries saw unemployment increase at the same time.

From 2008 to 2009, layoffs in Manufacturing and Construction rose by 15 and 21, respectively. As it became clear that the housing market had collapsed, construction in that sector dried up. In January 2006, roughly 1.4 million housing units were under construction. This figure fell for five years, hitting its lowest level in the fall of 2011, when only around 410,000 units were under construction.

The number of units under construction stood at around 1.3 million in March 2025.

Manufacturing jobs also fell quickly in the months following the financial crisis, which began in late 2007. Between 2006 and 2012, the number of workers employed in the manufacturing sector fell from 14.2 million to 11.4 million. The numbers have increased slightly since then, standing around 12.7 earlier this year, but still falling short of the number of jobs in the sector recorded before the financial crisis.

Retail follows a similar trend, with layoffs increasing in 2007 and 2008 compared to 2006, followed by a decline in 2009. Between December 2007 and 2009, the retail sector saw employment fall by more than 1.2 million workers, and did not return to pre-crisis levels until 2014.

Other sectors experienced increased layoffs in 2009, when the recession had taken hold and consumer demand fell. With rising unemployment, tax revenue decreased, leading to a rise in layoffs in the public sector in 2009, after they had declined in 2007 and 2008.

The looming threat of a recession for workers

Many workers are at the whim of the market when it comes to their fate during an economic downturn. It is impossible to fully protect oneself from being laid off, but labor market experts do note that some occupations are more recession-proof than others. Cory Stahle, an economist at Indeed, told CNBC that those seeking a stable sector should consider jobs tied to essential goods and services.

Think about grocery store workers and healthcare professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, jobs in the healthcare sector grew during the financial crisis, highlighting how just because economically people are struggling, it doesn’t mean that they stop needing medical attention.

The data from the 2008 Financial Crisis shows that your sector might not be the first to be hit, but knowing which workers will be the first to feel the effects depends on the type of economic downturn that causes the slowdown. In an uncertain economic environment, where consumers spend less due to concerns about relying on savings, retail may be hit earlier than other industries.

Additionally, as the White House’s tariff regime takes effect and construction materials, such as lumber and steel, become more expensive, construction could slow, as developers and investors may not see the returns as worthwhile with prices so high.

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