Is the U.S. facing a record hurricane season this year?

Ernesto was responsible for the death of three people earlier this month with all three men drowning off the US Atlantic coast following days of Hurricane Ernesto which then moved from towards Canada.

Hurricane Ernesto was the fifth named Atlantic storm of what is expected to be an intense hurricane season.

Hurricane Ernesto made landfall on Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands mid August and the Caribbean island’s main power supplier LUMA Energy said more than 725,000 homes and businesses lost electric service after the heavy rainfall.

The Category 1 storm then moved to Bermuda, knocking out power, downing trees and flooding parts of the island on, but officials stated at the time on the British island territory seemed to have escaped any major damage.

With the weather currently relatively tranquil as the Labor Day weekend starts, the National Hurricane Center in Miami was tracking three tropical systems in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Busy hurricane season

Earlier in the year, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season (from June 1 to November 30), predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

Planet heating up

The average July global surface temperature was 2.18 degrees F (1.21 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C) making it the the warmest July in NOAA’s 175-year global record. July 2024 was also the 14th-consecutive month of record-high temperatures for the planet.

Last month’s temperatures were above average across much of the global land surface except for Alaska, southern South America, eastern Russia, Australia and western Antarctica. Africa, Asia and Europe had their warmest Julys on record, while North America saw its second-warmest July.