Shoe prices are going to go through the roof: “That pair of $180 sneakers is going to cost me $250 now”

President Donald Trump paused most of his “reciprocal” tariffs for the moment on Wednesday after the US bond market, the backbone of the economy, began to collapse. However, the 90-day reprieve applies to imports from all nations except for China. It also doesn’t apply to the 10% baseline tariff that he has imposed on all US trading partners.

That means that American businesses will have to pay more for the products that they acquire from overseas. The footwear industry is one that will be especially hard hit by the tariffs as 99% of shoes sold in the United States are imported and there is almost no domestic production.

The number one country that shoe imports come from is China, representing nearly 62% of the total, according to data from the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA) reports Footwear News. As the trade war escalates, Trump has announced that the levy on goods from China will now rise to 145%.

Big shoe manufacturers unlikely to bring production back to the US

One of the many reasons that Trump gives for why he is imposing bruising tariffs is that he wants American companies to bring manufacturing back to the United States. While the supply chain meltdown caused by the covid-19 pandemic helped increase interest in domestic production, it takes time to switch it from one geographical location to another.

The speed of which depends on “the degree of vertical integration required,” Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, told Footwear News. However, he explained that “that is dependent on having a readily available, skilled workforce as well as supportive business regulations and logistics networks.” He said that for a significant geographic change, “firms plan on a five-year cycle.”

And while many are interested in making their shoes in the US, currently “the footwear ecosystem doesn’t really exist [in the US],” said CEO of Oka Brands, Pepper Harward, which produces footwear in Buford, Georgia. “It’s hard to build out our supply chains.”

Another major hurdle to overcome is labor costs. Manufacturing shoes is very labor intensive and sports shoes are complex to assemble which is why they are typically made in low labor-cost regions.

The likes of Nike may have lucked out for the time being, having diversified out of China which accounts for less than 20% of its apparel and footwear. Vietnam now produces over 50% of the Oregon-based company’s athletic products. But without a trade deal, Trump could reimpose the 46% reciprocal tariff in July.

However, even if the reciprocal tariffs are turned on again, the sneaker giant most likely won’t be bringing production back to the United States because it would cost more than the tariffs. “They need to stay competitive selling to customers in other countries that don’t impose tariffs,” pointed out economist Peter Schiff. “The result will be fewer sneakers sold in the U.S. at much higher prices.”

Shoe prices are going to go through the roof

Sneaker enthusiasts are already bracing for higher prices and changing their upcoming purchase plans. Sneakerhead Earl West told NBC BLK’s Curtis Bunn that he is going to have to be “very selective” on what he’s going to buy and when because “that pair of $180 sneakers is going to cost me $250 now.”

The sneaker collector with over 1,800 pairs of athletic shoes added, “I can’t afford to spend $250 on a pair of sneakers every other week — as a collector, that’s what we do. We’re not, we’re not buying to sell.”

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