The $166 billion Trump tariff ruling: Are you actually getting a refund check?

Donald Trump began imposing a series of tariffs last year when he returned to the White House using emergency powers. However, the Supreme Court ruled against the White House saying the move was illegal, which meant the federal government has to refund any money collected under those tariffs.

The Trump administration has begun the process of returning the more than $166 billion that had been collected plus interest. Those who directly paid the illegal duties can sign up on a government portal set up in April to claim their money. So can the average consumer claim a refund? Yes and no.

Is a Trump tariff refund coming? Maybe

While Trumps’s tariffs cost the average American consumer around $1,000 in higher costs on products they purchased after the import duties were imposed, they didn’t pay the tariffs directly in most cases. Most companies simply passed on the cost of the tariffs they paid onto the end consumer. One notable exception, Costco, which sued the government over the tariffs.

So, the average consumer won’t be able to claim any refund on the government’s new portal. Nor should they expect to get a discount at stores or see prices come down, says Dr. Ed Weir in a YouTube video he posted today.

“Once you’ve got that set point you’re going to continue,” he explained. “We’re still going to pay the same price unfortunately for most stuff.”

However, he pointed out that “regular people will get some money,” but that you should be on the lookout for scammers. “Invariably they come,” he says from his experience as a former Social Security administrator. So who will get some money?

So far there are very few companies that have said they will make an effort to give money paid in tariffs back to the end consumer. CEO Ron Vachris said in March that Costco would pass on any money recovered from the duties they paid “through lower prices and better values” for the retailer’s members.

FedEx and UPS have both announced that they will refund any tariffs they collected from customers. In the case of UPS, they collect roughly $5 billion. Customers will have to wait until the delivery companies get the funds back from the federal government before they will see any refund.

How is this possible? Weir explained that for example, in the case of FedEx, the company has a record of all the tariffs that it collected when the company acted as a customs broker.

“If you ordered something directly from a foreign country and FedEx delivered it directly to you, so it came from a foreign country, went directly to you, and then FedEx charged you a import duty, a tariff, they’re talking about returning that money to you,” he explained.

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