These are the winners and losers of Trump’s budget plan: Billions of dollars for defense and deportation programs

The public is getting its first look at the “big beautiful bill” that President Trump is pressuring Republicans in Congress to pass.

In the coming weeks, the GOP will be hard at work to unify its divided caucus around the legislation. President Trump has stated that he wants to include tax cuts in the bill and would like to see leaders incorporate an increase to the debt ceiling, acknowledging that this budget will add to the country’s debt.

Tax cuts have been justified on the grounds that the country will generate significant revenue through tariffs, which are essentially another form of tax. However, unlike income tax, tariffs and other duties imposed at the point of purchase are regressive, meaning that the working class pays the same as the super-rich.

Medicaid remains a key front in GOP debates

Democrats have warned that the funding of tax cuts will come at the expense of critical government programs like Medicaid that provide healthcare to close to a fifth of the population. Politico reported on April 29 that the GOP caucus, in order to attract the votes of budget hawks, is thinking about capping Medicaid spending to states that have expanded the program, which “could lead to massive coverage losses.”

Medicaid expansion has been approved by state legislatures and at the ballot box in 40 states and the District of Columbia. Other proposals include pulling back the federal contribution to Medicaid, meaning that states would have to make up the difference to protect healthcare coverage for those who depend on the program. Speaker Mike Johnson told Politico that he did not believe these measures would end up in the final bill, but as GOP leadership looks to its vote count, they could form part of the debate in the coming weeks as negotiations intensify.

As of Sunday, May 4, the GOP has said that the proposed cuts to healthcare spending "will have no impact on providing benefits to Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries." The cuts to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, like that which will bring California’s innovative CalAIM program to an end, were described as "non-statutory, wasteful, and woke activities." Some of these programs, which were allowed to use federal funds to test new approaches to a state’s Medicaid program, aimed at lowering overall costs, like in the Case of California, by providing food assistance and housing support to Medicaid members, to avoid a further deterioration of their mental or physical health.

Pentagon’s budget will surpass $1 trillion

The bill includes over $1 trillion, an increase of around $150 billion, for the Defense Department, led by embattled Secretary Pete Hegseth. Hegseth has reportedly used Signal to share military plans with family, close friends, and advisors. The Trump administration has defended Hegseth, arguing that the information he shares is not secret or confidential. However, these arguments do not sit well with some GOP members on Capitol Hill, who worry about what such a laissez-faire approach to sensitive information could mean for national security.

Republican Sen. Roger Wicker, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, has opened an investigation into the administration’s use of Signal after The Atlantic’s Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg was inadvertently added to a group where Hegseth, former National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Vice President J.D. Vance, and other high-level officials discussed military attacks on Houthis in Yemen.

Pentagon’s budget will surpass $1 trillion

The Department of Defense (DoD) is the only government department unable to pass an audit. Biden administration officials argued that not being able to pass an audit does not mean that waste, fraud, and abuse are taking place within the department.

However, that claim becomes difficult to prove without an audit, and since the Pentagon still can’t pass one, ensuring proper use of public funds is an immense challenge. Nevertheless, with the largest budget for the Defense Department forming part of the budget bill circulating in Congress, the military is poised to be one of the biggest winners.

Interestingly, $200 million has been allocated for the “deployment of automation and artificial intelligence to accelerate the audits of financial statements” of the department. While investments in systems that can make auditing the Pentagon easier, these systems must be effective in identifying mistakes, inaccuracies, and raising red flags for further investigations.

Increased spending on missile defense

The budget includes $25 billion for the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), for investments in missile defense, with the administration pushing for the development of a “Golden Dome,” similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome.” According to the US Government Accountability Office, the US government has allocated $174 billion to the Missile Defense Agency since 2002. The GAO believes this figure to be an undercount and has worked with Congress to close gaps that allowed inaccurate and misleading statistics to be reported, obscuring the true cost of the program. The additional funding allocated for missile defense will test whether changes implemented by Congress during the Biden administration to require better accounting will solve the issue.

The Hill reported that another $8.5 billion has been allocated for weapons modernization programs and “quality of life programs” that service members depend on, including childcare and educational programs.

Department of Homeland Security to see major increases

Under the budget proposal, discretionary funding for the Department of Homeland Security would increase by around $1.8 billion to $62.4 billion, in terms of discretionary spending.

The House Committee on Homeland Security has included $46.5 billion towards finishing the border wall system, which earmarks funds for the “construction, installation, or improvement of primary, waterborne, and secondary barriers,” as well as “access roads,” and other “barrier system attributes” ranging from senors and “other detection technology,” to lights, censors, and additional cameras.

$5 billion has also been included for “necessary expenses relating to lease, acquisition, construction, or improvement” of US Customs and Border Protection facilities and checkpoints at the southern, northern, and maritime borders.

An additional $4.1 billion has been proposed to hire and train new border patrol agents, with an additional $2 billion allocated for bonuses; GOP leaders are looking to allow the DHS to draw on this funding through 2029.

$16 million will also be set aside for CBP’s National Vetting Center, which “support screening, vetting activities, and expansion of the criminal history database of foreign nationals.”

The New York Times has also reported that the GOP has proposed changes to immigration law that would require migrants to pay $1,000 to claim asylum, which many international immigration experts see as a violation of a migrant’s claims to seek security in another country when they fear for their lives at home.

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