Trump vs Biden: What do the polls say before the first presidential debate?

On Thursday, voters will have the chance to revisit nightmarish 2020 presidential debates as President Biden and Former President Donald Trump face off once again. Although the Democratic and Republican Parties still need to hold their respective conventions to officially elect their candidates, the two men are the presumed nominees for their parties. Thus, the campaigns are wasting no time. Typically, presidential debates are held just before the election.

CNN has organized the debate, which will take place on Thursday, 27 June, at 9:00 pm ET at the news channel’s studio in Atlanta, Georgia. The event can be followed live on CNN and will be moderated by anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. No audience will be present, giving the event a more serious tone.

What do the polls say?

If any of the past four general and mid-term elections have taught voters in the US one thing, it is to not always believe the polls. Different polling companies and organizations have different models and methods, which is why there are often differences between polls, even when looking at the same geographical unit.

For instance, a recent poll by The Economist puts the chance of Donald Trump winning in November at seventy percent.

On the other hand, the FiveThirtyEight tracker, which looks at a variety of polls together, has the race much closer and much more favorable to President Biden.

Morning Consult, another major player in the polling game, also shows that the race is much tighter.

A smaller polling agency, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, also shows the race much closer, but here, we see that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the map, where he has been missing from many of the other polls.

A third-party candidate is unlikely to win the White House in the United States, but they can have a major impact on the election by taking away votes from the candidates for the major parties. Both the Democratic and Republican parties are worried about how the presence of Kennedy in the race would impact their own candidate’s chances, as it remains unclear which party would lose more votes to Kennedy’s independent run for the White House. Unlike the 2020 campaign, a more serious third-party contender could make pollsters’ job more difficult.