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Ukraine predicts how long the Russian invasion will last

Two senior Ukrainian military officials have issued a statement warning that Russia’s “large-scale war against Ukraine” will “continue beyond 2022.”

Update:
El presidente de Ucrania, Volodímir Zelenski
PRESIDENCIA DE UCRANIA

The Ukrainian military is expecting the Russian invasion to “last beyond 2022,” “on a large scale of Russia against Ukraine” that began with the invasion of the country on 24 February, “it will last beyond 2022″, two senior officials of the Ukrainian Army assured this Wednesday.

This was stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and the First Deputy Chairman of the Parliament's Committee for National Security, Defense and Intelligence, Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, in an article entitled “How to guarantee a military campaign in 2023: Ukrainian perspective”, published by local media.

“The large-scale war, unleashed by the Russian Federation against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has gone beyond the concept of a local conflict of medium intensity”, the military have warned.

Both have analyzed indicators such as the number of military forces involved, the list of weapons and other high-tech equipment inherent in this military confrontation and that are being used.

In the opinion of both, the phases of the armed conflict do not fit with those of wars at the beginning of the 21st century, so its duration “is already measured in months. Furthermore, there is every reason to believe that this time count will go beyond the year 2022.”

Russia's next goals

On the other hand, Valerii Zaluzhnyi and Mykhailo Zabrodskyi estimate that the next objectives of the Russian troops will be: to reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region, to advance towards Zaporizhia (whose nuclear power plant they control from the start of the conflict), increase armed hostilities from the neighboring territory of Belarus and make another attempt to seize kyiv.

Regarding these future movements, the two military officers have recognized that if the Russian forces manage to advance on these fronts, Russia would obtain, in addition to the military benefit, significant political and economic dividends.

Zaluzhnyi and Zabrodskyi have warned that Moscow would thus be able to "guarantee the security of the self-proclaimed independent republics (of Donetsk and Lugansk) and the logical, albeit late, completion of the so-called 'special operation', as well such as preventing Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, establishing control over the key element of Ukraine's energy, its nuclear plants in the south”.

However, both have also highlighted in the article the problems that could interrupt Russian plans: its international isolation, partial economic pressure through international sanctions, difficulties with the general mobilization and the lack of weapons and modern equipment.

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