The case for letting starting pitchers throw more in MLB

In the 2023 College World Series, Stanford’s Quinn Mathews threw a 156-pitch complete came to help the Cardinal advance out of the regionals. Even as a pitcher who regularly throws deep into games, with 15 of 16 starts going over 100 pitches, many fans and pundits were shocked at that 156 number.

But when Stanford’s coach pointed out that it wasn’t about the raw number, but more the type of pitches that Mathews threw that was the deciding factor in the outing, it underlined a divide in the baseball world.

There is something of a culture war going on in baseball at the moment, pitting the traditional “feel-for-the-game” adherents against the “numbers-don’t-lie” analytics disciples.

In Mathews’ case, 156 is the data to be input into the analytics formula, while pitch type and the feeling of the pitcher fall into the “intangibles” column favored by traditionalists.

Pitch counters are missing out on great pitchers

The obvious problem with working to a preset pitch count is that in the name of protecting arms you run the risk of missing out on the best that some pitchers have to offer. Just as every player comes in all shapes and sizes, pitchers too are not a one-size-fits-all category. Some blaze out quickly and others need to work their way into a game.

The classic name brought out in defense of this idea is Nolan Ryan. Renowned for high pitch counts, Ryan holds the record for complete games with two or fewer hits at 37 such instances. He liked to work long and deep into games.

Exceptional a pitcher as Ryan was, it is a flaw to think that he was an exception in this area rather than the rule.

Both sides have got it wrong

Back in bad old “good old days,” a starting pitcher was expected to work three times through the lineup, leaving relief pitchers the job of mopping up at the end of a game. But that concept is just as flawed as pitch counts, with the three-times-through-the-order limit every bit as arbitrary.

Coaches, catchers, and pitchers need to have an open dialogue and full understanding of the arm they are dealing with. Some pitchers gas out at 80 pitches. Others are solid from 60 to 100 before any noticeable decline. And a placement pitcher, who lets his superb control do the heavy lifting, can go much deeper into a game than one who relies on brute force.

The Texas Rangers rotation presents a new benchmark

When Bruce Bochy took over the helm at Arlington, he made clear that his focus was on pitching. This did not particularly resonate with the Rangers fans, who lament the loss of their offense to trades more than anything. But it is looking as if Bochy might have been right.

Texas now has tapped into something that is perhaps the key to their unexpected tenure at the top of the AL West. While there are teams out there with a stronger, more eye-catching bullpen, the Rangers have focused almost exclusively on their starters.

In fact, the Texas Rangers bullpen is something of a liability, with fully half of the team’s losses attributed to them. And this is something that is counter-intuitive. Fifteen times this year, the Rangers have gone into their bullpen with a lead or tie and let the game slip away. Bullpens are supposed to be short-work specialists, but in the case of the Rangers, it is the other way around.

Nathan Eovaldi currently sits at the top of the pile in MLB with 105.1 innings pitched so far. He is on track for a 220 inning season if his arm holds out. And while there are other teams with pitchers carrying just as large a load, none of them have more than one or two who are the work-horse. Texas has four of their starting pitchers throwing above 70 innings this season.

There have been fifteen pitchers to throw a complete game in the 2023 season, including the Rangers’ Jon Gray. His team mate Nathan Eovaldi is the only one to have thrown two.

The loss of rotation ace Jacob deGrom for the season to Tommy John surgery is a blow to Texas’ plans, but rather than rely on their bullpen to pick up the slack, Bochy seems to be intent on asking more of his starters. And so far it is a plan that seems to be working.

The right training. Early.

For several decades now, the focus in developing young pitchers has been on velocity. The use of the arm and elbow became the zone that coaches and trainers devoted their energy to. And average velocities crept up, ever northward. But the cost was a high one.

Young pitchers have had precious little tuition in how to use their legs and hips properly to generate power. Rather than have the arm as a lever whose primary purpose is to release the power generated in the lower half of the body, they rely instead on the arm to try and generate the power.

There are, of course, exceptions, such as Stanford’s Quinn Mathews and perhaps the most exciting pitching prospect in the upcoming draft, LSU’s Paul Skenes. Like Mathews, Skenes is a pitcher who is most comfortable in the 120-pitch range, throwing an average of 112 pitches per outing.

I know that it is way too early to mention it, but if the Rangers can manage to get to the World Series with the pitching game plan that they have in place, it will be a seismic shift in the battle between intangibles and raw data.

Rather than look at these pitchers as outliers, perhaps youth and college coaches should be looking to develop in this direction. Perhaps MLB scouts, if there are any left, should be looking at mechanics and longevity rather than simply relying on radar guns and pitch counts.