Bills vs Jaguars AFC Wild Card Round, preview, odds and prediction 

The question in Jacksonville coming into the first weekend of the playoffs is: is there a changing of the guard in the AFC coming? The Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens have been playoff regulars along with the Buffalo Bills, but now the AFC looks like it has some new blood in the hunt for the Conference Championship.

Bills preview

Buffalo has been on the cusp of a Super Bowl return for the last few seasons, but they haven’t been able to break through and get back to the final Sunday of the season. While many have asked if the Bills Super Bowl window is closed, this could be Josh Allen and the Bills best shot with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes set to watch the postseason from home.

The Bills failed to win the AFC East for the first time since 2019, as the New England Patriots had a resurgent season and reclaimed the division title in Mike Vrable’s first year in Foxborough. The Bills got off to a good start, winning their first four games with a balanced attack of Allen through the air and James Cook on the ground.

Allen’s follow up season after winning the MVP last year has been very similar to last campaign, all though he’s thrown a few more INT. The difference between last years MVP season was the way Allen was winning games with big plays in crucial moments. It’s been more about a balance of Allen and Cook who was the NFL’s rushing leader with 1,621 yards and added 12 TDs to top off a career season.

Defense has never really been the strong suit for Buffalo, but this year, they are 7th in yards allowed, and the best team against the pass in the entire league giving up just 156 yards a game. They aren’t great against the run, allowing 136 yards a game which is in the bottom five, and they give up 21.5 points per game which is middle of the pack.

Jacksonville preview

With a rookie coach and a revived quarterback the Jacksonville Jaguars sent warning signs of them being a team that was going to be a contender, but they seemed fly under the radar for much of the season.

Three straight wins against Houston, San Francisco and Kansas City drew plenty of praise for Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence who seems to have had a renaissance year much like Baker Mayfield did last year under Cohen. Things got a little slippery after that three game run when they lost three of their next four, but they finished off the season with eight straight wins and won the AFC South.

Lawrence threw for 4,000 yards for the third time in his career, but his 29 TDs were a career high and the Jags 13 win season was the best they have had since Lawrence arrived. A lot of that has to do with the Jacksonville defense which has created 31 take aways which is the second most in the league. They are also the top teams against the run, allowing 85.6 yards per game.

Odds and prediction

This game is going to come down to who can control the turnover battle. That’s a given, and basically the case in every game, but when you have a team that specializes in takeaways and a quarterback that has had a gray cloud over his head when it comes to giveaways in big games, that can be a problem. That especially comes into play if James Cook can’t get going against this stingy run defense.

• Odds: Buffalo (-1.5)
• Over/Under: 51
• Moneyline: Bills (-119), Jaguars (-101)

I really wanted this to be the Bills year. I think Josh Allen deserves to make it to the Super Bowl at least once, but having to go on the road against a red hot Jags team might keep Allen from taking that next step with Mahomes and Jackson watching from home. We’ve seen it with the Chiefs and Ravens and I think we’ll see it with the Bills on Sunday afternoon.

Jags win 31-23.

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