Kansas City’s loss to Houston in Week 14 dropped the Chiefs to 6-7, leaving Patrick Mahomes and his team fighting through a crowded AFC playoff race.
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs? The numbers behind Kansas City’s postseason odds
This time last year, all the talk around the Kansas City Chiefs was whether they could reinforce their NFL dynasty by sealing a first-ever Super Bowl three-peat. Fast forward 12 months, and Andy Reid’s side are now in grave danger of missing out on the playoffs.
Another disappointment with big consequences
The Thanksgiving defeat to the Dallas Cowboys left the Chiefs with a 6-6 record, which is only good enough for third place in the AFC West. The following week they dug the hole a little deeper by losing to the Texans leaving them with a losing record 6-7, but they still have a small chance to make it to the playoffs.
IF
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) December 10, 2025
⚫️ Chiefs win out (LAC, TEN, DEN, LV)
⚫️ Colts lose at least 2 of their final 4 (SEA, SF, JAX, HOU)
⚫️ Chargers lose at least 3 of their final 4 (KC, DAL, HOU, DEN)
The Chiefs can make the playoffs pic.twitter.com/cW5JqucdoU
As it stands, Kansas City has an 11.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. They basically need a miracle, which consists of:
- Winning their last four games. (LAC, TEN, DEN, LV)
- The Colts need to lose at least two of their last four games (SEA, SF, JAX, HOU), and...
- The Chargers need to lose at least three of their last four games. (KC, DAL, HOU, DEN)
How likely are the Chiefs to clinch a postseason spot?
The Chiefs are the Chiefs and nobody is doubting that they can win out. The last four games are within reach, but the other factors complicate the quest to make it to the playoffs. That said, the Colts are struggling and just hired a 44-year-old QB to help them stay afloat. There’s a very good chance Indianapolis loses at least two of thier final games. But, it’s not so easy for the Chargers to finish 1-3, although, they have four very hard games to finish out the season.
Patrick Mahomes:
— BBQ Chiefs (@BBQChiefs) December 10, 2025
"I always want to win. I don't know what the percentages are, but I know they're not high. I think it'd be special to get into the playoffs and make a run." pic.twitter.com/VTzivVdUpX
When did Kansas City last miss the playoffs?
In addition to reaching the last three Super Bowls, the Chiefs have made the playoffs for 10 straight seasons. The last time they didn’t was in 2014, when they ended the regular season with a 9-7 record. To put that into context, Travis Kelce, who debuted in 2013, has missed the postseason only once, while Mahomes, who was drafted in 2017, has never failed to make it.
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