Here’s why players over 35 have a higher efficiency per play in the NFL
Data shows that NFL players over the age of 35 perform more efficiently, but if we take a closer look, we’ll see why that doesn’t tell the full story.
NFL players over the age of 35 appear to perform more efficiently on a per-play basis, as measured by metrics like PFF’s Win Above Replacement (WAR) per snap. If that data seems like it’s not adding up, that’s because it’s not telling the full story.
These players aren’t just all having a late-career performance surge. Rather, there is a statistical illusion caused by two key biases in the data.
Why do NFL players over 35 have a higher efficiency per play?
The suggestion that all players get better with age - particularly past 35 - based on this data is misleading, and here’s why.
Quarterbacks skew the numbers
Older players with significant snaps in the NFL are disproportionately quarterbacks. Players at that position just tend to last longer and perform more efficiently in later years.
46-year old @TomBrady ran a faster 40-yard dash than he did at the combine over 20 years ago 👀
— NFL (@NFL) February 29, 2024
(via @nobull) pic.twitter.com/QP1lda50gG
For instance, only about 3.8% of players with at least 200 snaps in a season are quarterbacks. But among players age 36 or older, that number jumps to 34%, and it climbs to 55% for players 38 and up. Quarterbacks often play into their late 30s and only the really good ones stick around that long. So they end up driving up the average efficiency for the older age groups.
Survivorship bias: Only the elite remain
However, even once we remove quarterbacks from the mix, the curve still shows an unrealistically positive aging trend. That’s due to survivorship bias. Only the best players tend to remain active and play meaningful snaps at age 30+. Players with injuries, declining performances, or who were replaced with younger, cheaper talent, of course won’t even be counted in the data.
In contrast, younger players who get significant snaps may include emerging stars as well as those getting a shot based solely on their draft pedigree or cost. This also dilutes the efficiency numbers for younger players and inflates those for the older ones.
20 years after his first camp, Aaron Rodgers is still at it 🟡⚫️ pic.twitter.com/jEWBtJ4Nxz
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) June 12, 2025
Skewed analysis
So, players over 35 don’t necessarily get better. It’s just that only the best of the best survive that long to continue playing. And when they do - especially the quarterbacks - they tend to be highly efficient. It’s not a matter of defying age decline, but rather the elite talent outlasting the rest.
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