Is there a ‘Hard Knocks’ curse? Caleb Williams and the Bears join show

The Chicago Bears will be the newest stars of ‘Hard Knocks’, HBO’s long-running documentary series following the behind-the-scenes stories in the NFL.

After finishing with a 7-10 record in 2023 the Bears are looking to rebuild around quarterback Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams is expected to be the focus of the Bears’ ‘Hard Knocks’ series, the first time that the team have been featured on the show.

“We are honored to feature such an iconic NFL franchise on ‘Hard Knocks,’” NFL Films senior director and supervising producer Shannon Furman explained. “The Chicago Bears have a talented roster, coaching staff and front office all determined to match the expectations of a hungry fan base. We are thankful to the entire organization for opening their doors to us for what is sure to be an exciting training camp this summer.”

Chairman George McCaskey had previously been reluctant to allow access to the Bears during the crucial preseason training period. However signs of improvement towards the end of 2023 appear to have shifted his thinking.

Is the ‘Hard Knocks’ curse real?

The iconic NFL series first aired in 2001 and its subjects have a chequered history of success in the seasons covered by the show. Cameras typically follow teams as they go through their preseason preparations, although an ‘in-season’ version has been added in recent years.

Over the previous 21 series of the show, only seven of the teams have made it through to the first round of the playoffs. Only one team has ever made it to the Conference Final in a season covered by the ‘Hard Knocks’ cameras: the 2010 New York Jets.

Most recently the Miami Dolphins were the subject of the 2023 in-season series and they failed to progress past the Wild Card round of the playoffs. In fairness, they met eventual Super Bowl winners the Kansas City Chiefs, so few would have given them much of a chance.

However while claims of a curse may be appealing, there is a more rational explanation for the generally sub-par performances of subject teams. The NFL allows any team that has made the playoffs in the previous two seasons to opt out of the programme, and they often do.

This means that the better teams are rarely featured in the series and, consequently, the subject teams rarely perform well over the course of the show. With that in mind the fact that a third of these - relatively poor - teams have gone on to make it to the post-season is actually a pretty good success rate. Appearing on ‘Hard Knocks’ may indicate past failure, but it certainly doesn’t rule out future success.