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Jaguars - Dolphins betting trends: Pick, odds, point spread and over/under prediction | NFL week 1

It’s all about the Sunshine State in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season with the Miami Dolphins hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. As always, we’ve got your odds.

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Given the weapons that will be on the field, fans are likely in for an offensive treat when the Jaguars and Dolphins go at it this Sunday. With kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, this is going to be a heated affair.

Jaguars - Dolphins: The lay of the land

When it comes to the Jacksonville Jaguars, one could argue that it’s a team that quite literally exemplifies the importance of the relationship between a tight end and his quarterback. Last season, almost 27% of starting signal caller Trevor Lawrence’s passes went to a TE, primarily Evan Engram who was impressive across the last five games of the stretch. Indeed, against the Browns, Buccaneers, and Titans the 30-year-old was targeted into double digits including a season-high 15 against the Bucs where he caught 10 passes to the tune of 95 yards. This is to say, expect to see more of the same when the Jags begin their campaign on the road. That of course brings us to the odds which you can see below:

Jaguars - Dolphins: The odds

  • Spread: Jacksonville +3 (-110) | Miami -3 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Jacksonville +140 | Miami -165
  • Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-11) | Under 48.5 (-110)

This is where we get into the fine print which is to say that while Engram is clearly a threat, he is inadvertently helped by the fact that the Dolphins happen to be a team that allowed 904 receiving yards to TEs on 91 catches last season. Those numbers cemented their position among the worst 11 teams in the league, a notion that is further confirmed by the idea that the team also conceded the eighth-most targets to tight ends. What does that mean? When you consider that Engram caught 114 passes for 963 yards last year, nothing good for the Dolphins as we can expect to see Lawrence targeting him even more.

It doesn’t get any better either with Jalen Ramsey’s hamstring issue still reportedly an issue ahead of Sunday’s game. Should the Dolphins be without their key corner, the likes of Christian Kirk or Brian Thomas Jr. are likely to have a field day. Frankly, even if Ramsey is able to play he almost certainly won’t be firing on all cylinders so the problem still remains. Truthfully, Lawrence will enjoy having more time in the pocket to pick his passes, something that is going to be an issue.

Yet, it’s not all gloom and doom for the Dolphins as they do have a rather potent offense - ask the Denver Broncos - that boasts the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Both will create a serious issue for the Jacksonville secondary on Sunday and that’s before we touch on Tua Tagovailoa who continues to impress under center. Add to that the creative playcalling of Mike McDaniel and you’ve got yourself a party. The prediction? Ultimately, Miami’s big play capacity is going to prove too much for Jacksonville’s wobbly defense.

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