Luck of the draw? New England’s strength of schedule is one of the worst in NFL history

It’s been talked about all year long, and it shouldn’t take away the merit of what the New England Patriots have achieved, but the questions about their strength of schedule have followed them all season.

Luck of the draw?

On one hand it’s unfortunate, because the critics think their schedule is one of the reasons that the Pats have been able to reach the Super Bowl. You can’t undermine the growth Drake Maye has shown in year two. He went from a rookie who was figuring out how to deal with the speed and schemes in this league to an MVP candidate in his second year.

You can’t understate the job that Mike Vrable has done in his first year as head coach in Foxborough. He has changed the culture, and brought a sense of belief into the locker room. This team is gritty, they are tough and they play an old school brand of football that reflects the attitude of their coach.

The work has been put in and the results have shown on the field and in the win column. They won 14 games during the regular season, and finished with the two seed in the AFC. It’s been a remarkable turnaround in Foxborough, but when you look at the stats, and the history of the league you see that the Patriots schedule was historically easy.

Record setting strength of schedule

I said unfortunate earlier in this article, but for the Patriots this is extremely fortunate. They have beaten all of the teams they have needed to beat to get to this stage of the season. They don’t pick the teams they have to play, but if they were able to choose, it would have been hard for them to pick an easier schedule then the one they had to play this year.

They played just three games against winning teams in the regular season. They lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-14 in Week 3, and then played the Buffalo Bills twice, splitting the series as both teams won a game against their AFC East rival on the road. The rest of the 14 games they played were against teams with losing records. The opponents win percentage in 2024 was .429, which according to historical data is the third easiest schedule since 1978. Only the 1991 Buffalo Bills and the 1999 St. Louis Rams had easier schedules in the last 48 years.

Then the playoffs came where you can’t avoid playing good teams, but they played an LA Chargers team with a banged up offensive line and NE sacked Justin Herbert six times. Then they played the Houston Texans without Nico Collins and a QB in C.J. Stroud that was going through a turnover crisis in the playoffs. Then they played a Denver Broncos team with back up QB Jarett Stidham under center and won 10-7.

I know it sounds like I’m throwing shade at the Pats, but I’m simply stating their strength of schedule wasn’t the greatest in the regular season and their path to the Super Bowl may have been aided by some fortunate turns of events. They are set to play a great Seattle Seahawks team that is looking like they are in top form, so they have a chance to shut me and a lot of other people up with a win a couple Sundays from now.

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