MVP Race after Week 10: Mahomes moving away from pack, Tagovailoa draws even with Allen and Hurts

Week 10 turned the NFL on its side as teams who we considered the best in the league were dropped from their perch, and a couple MVP favorites saw their odds plummet after failing to impress book makers in Vegas.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs cruised to a comfortable victory while the Philadelphia Eagles lost on Monday night, a day after the Buffalo Bills gave away the game to the Vikings in Orchard Park. Tua Tagovailo and the Dolphins continue to roll as long as he is healthy, while Lamar Jackson got a well deserved midseason rest and will come out of the break rested and ready for the final stretch of the regular season.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City QB: +120, last week +225

Following a Week 9 win in which the Chiefs were put to the test against the Titans, the Jaguars came to town. Kansas City were obvious favorites over Jacksonville. They were at home, against a three win team but those games like that can often cause problems for teams who might look to take their foot off the pedal against an inferior team. Mahomes and the Chiefs were at full throttle pace from the start, jumping out to a 20-0 second quarter lead and putting it on auto pilot from there. Mahomes tossed four TDs on 26/35 passing as the Chiefs took the momentary top spot in the AFC. Mahomes is running away from the rest of the QBs in the league with his NFL high 25 TDs. The QB with the most TDs after Mahomes is Josh Allen who has five less, and three more interceptions.

Stats: COMP%: 66.9% YDS: 2,936 TDS: 25 INT: 7 RYDS: 215 RTD: 1

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB: +500, last week +250

When your team loses two games in a row it’s normal for that aura of dominance to go disappearing. When you’re an MVP candidate and you are the main culprit of your team losing both games then it’s normal that your chances of winning the award get awfully thin. Allen threw a fourth quarter interception, and then fumbled on the goal line to gift the Vikings new life a lot of the talk and the media started voicing concerns about Allen’s inability to finish close games. He threw for 330 yards on 29/43 passing, but had just one TD and threw a game changing interception in the fourth quarter that opened the door just a crack for a Vikings comeback. Minnesota kicked that door in when Allen couldn’t handle the snap in the end zone and gifted the Vikes a second shot of life when the Bills had the win in their pocket. An overtime interception (his league-leading 10th of the season) sank the Bills to 6-3 on the year and they went from the one seed in the AFC to the third in their own division.

Stats: COMP%: 64.5% YDS: 2,777 TDS: 20 INT: 10 RYDS: 476 RTD: 4

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles QB: +500, last week +250

We know now Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are not invincible after watching fall to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night. Not many expected the Eagles to go into the post season undefeated, but this is a team that, despite turning the ball over four times, was still within striking distance of the Commanders. Philly had their chances to beat their division rivals, but untimely fumbles like the one by Quez Watkins after a perfect pass from Hurts did not help the Eagles keep their record unblemished. Hurts went for 175 yards with two TDs and an INT. I was interested to see how much a loss would affect Hurts’ odds, and it turns out, not the much. He is still well in the hunt, but Philly needs to keep winning if Hurts is going to be considered for the MVP, because his numbers are not outstanding.

Stats: COMP%: 67.9% YDS: 2,217 TDS: 14 INT: 3 RYDS: 354 RTD: 7

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins QB: +500, last week +2000

If it wasn’t easy enough to root for Tua Tagovailoa before this season started, everything that has happened since Week 1 should make everyone who is a football fan root for him even more. He has overcome the franchises debates over ditching him in the offseason to becoming one of the top players in the league and he’s done it with a smile of his face. If not for the two concussions that kept him out of the two games, Tua would be the favorite for the MVP going into Week 11. He went 25/32 against the Browns and passed for 285 yards and three TDs in the blowout victory over Cleveland. At the moment, Tua has the highest QB rating (118.4), second highest completion percentage behind Geno Smith (72%), and the best TD/INT ratio in the league.

Stats: COMP%: 71% YDS: 2,265 TDS: 18 INT: 3 RYDS: 35 RTD: 0

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens QB: +1200 last week +1000

Lamar Jackson’s stats took a dip in the weeks leading up to the Ravens Week 10 bye. He had ten passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns with 749 yards passing with two 100 yard rushing games in the first three weeks of the season. In the six games since, he has 1,019 yards, no 100 yard rushing games, six passing TDs and no rushing TDs. Lets remember that Lamar is in a contract year, and already deserves to be one of the highest paid QBs in the league, but he can bump up his soon-to-be- blockbuster contract with a fantastic end of the regular season. Looking at the schedule, the Ravens will play just one team with a winning record from here until the end of the regular season, so Jackson could be teeing off on these bottom feeder teams starting with Carolina this weekend.

Stats: COMP%: 62.3% YDS: 1,768 TDS: 16 INT: 6 RYDS: 635 RTD: 2