Alcaraz stumbles in Paris but who will finish season as world No 1?

Jannik Sinner took a knee in Paris sooner than expected. “Becoming world number one is already impossible. This year, it’s not in my hands. All I want is to finish the season in the best way possible,” he said at Tuesday’s press conference before his opening match on Wednesday against Zizou Bergs. The Italian, of course, didn’t yet know that his great rival, Carlos Alcaraz, would fall in his debut against Cameron Norrie. Had he known, his words might have been different – or perhaps not.

Alcaraz and Sinner vying for number 1

Alcaraz still holds the power to end the season on top of the world rankings, but things just got more complicated. In fact, Sinner will rise to No 1 in the ATP rankings next Monday if he wins this Masters 1000 – a realistic prospect for the current king of indoor tennis. It would be an awkward, and possibly short-lived, reign, as he wouldn’t be able to add points in the ATP Finals in Turin, the last tournament of the year, where he was crowned champion last season after winning every match.

Alcaraz, by contrast, managed just one victory in 2024 before exiting in the group stage, meaning he has more room to gain points. But first, he’ll need to deliver. And the bitter aftertaste of Tuesday’s upset against Norrie doesn’t exactly inspire optimism.

Historically, Paris’ second tournament has not been kind to the Spaniard, whose best result there remains the 2022 quarterfinals. Nor has he typically shone during this late-season stretch, when fatigue – both physical and mental – begins to weigh heavily on players. Alcaraz arrived at this Masters fresher than in past editions, having not played an official match in nearly a month since Tokyo (aside from the lucrative Six Kings Slam exhibition).

But that long break also left him short on rhythm and precision. Now, he won’t play again until Turin – where the final battle for the No 1 ranking will take place. There’s little room for error. That’s all there is.

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