Clausura 2023: Chivas’ options of qualifying directly

Chivas stride into the last day of the Clausura 2023 regular phase as one of the protagonists. It’s been a long, long time since the Rebaño Sagrado have found themselves fighting for the top of the table. They are one game away from directly qualifying for the quarter finals and also a chance to finish second in the standings.

On Saturday, Guadalajara take on Mazatlán at Akron Stadium. With Mazatlán bottom of the table with just two victories all season, Veljko Paunovic’s side start out very much as the favourites - but they cannot afford to be overconfident, as a setback at home could prove costly. Chivas have the future in their own hands so let’s take a look at what could happen and the possible outcomes.

La MX the top four club’s fixtures this weekend

Scenario 1: If they beat Mazatlán

If Chivas beats Mazatlán, they will qualify directly to the quarter finals as one of top four teams in the table. A victory would see them finish on 34 points - the highest figure ever reached by the club in the history of short tournaments. So a win on Saturday is important for a number of reasons.

It could even allow Guadalajara to move second in the standings. That however, would depend on América’s result in their game against Juárez on Friday. Chivas could move second if they win and América lose or draw. If Las Águilas win, Chivas could still finish second - but only if by winning their match by nine or 10 goals. Goal difference is all that separates the two clubs in the table - América are +14 and Chivas +7.

Scenario 2: If they draw against Mazatlán

Chivas would still secure their direct qualification to the quarter finals with a draw. A point would be enough to see them through for the first time since the playoffs returned to Mexican soccer, in 2020. A draw might even be enough to log second place in the table - although that would depend on a couple of results: América losing to Juárez and Toluca drawing or losing at home against Necaxa.

Scenario 3: If they lose to Mazatlán

This scenario is the only scenario where Guadalajara would depend totally on results from other games. Defeat would leave them with no chance of finishing second - as América have a superior goal difference and it’s unlikely that they will lost by seven goals or more to Juárez (who have only scored 17 goals in 16 games). Chivas could potentially even lose their direct route to the quarter finals - that would be a disaster for several reasons, not least as the playoff weekend coincides with Canelo Álvarez’s bout against John Ryder on 6 May at Akron Stadium.

Chivas would only drop to fifth place, and out of the direct qualifying places under the following circumstances: 1. They lose to Mazatlán and both Toluca and Pachuca win their games against Necaxa and Querétaro respectively. So Guadalajara cannot afford to relax, nor rest any of their key players. The plan is to finish as high as possible after 17 matchdays.

Liga MX top 4 places going into Matchday 17