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LIGA MX

Clausura 2023: Atlas’ options of qualifying

By the mid-point of the tournament, Benjamín Mora’s team were lodged at the bottom of the table. They managed to lift themselves up, sit ninth and have a chance of entering the playoffs.

Ciudad de MéxicoUpdate:
By the mid-point of the tournament, Benjamín Mora’s team were lodged at the bottom of the table. They managed to lift themselves up, sit ninth and have a chance of entering the playoffs.
Francisco GuascoEFE

A strong finish to the Clausura 2023 enabled Atlas to move into the Liguilla zone and reach the last day of the regular season with a good chance of entering the next round. It was their remarkable comeback in the CONCACAF Champions League that instigated a change of fortunes in the domestic competition - Atlas responded after losing their first leg against Olimpia 4-1 by resoundingly winning the return leg 4-0. After that, their confidence returned and with it, positive results in the Liga MX.

Now, Los Zorros even have the possibility of playing the playoffs at home, depending on what happens on the last day of the regular tournament. Benjamín Mora’s side visit Atlético San Luis on Saturday (5:00 p.m.) - a side that just outside the classification zone in 13th and will risk everything they have to secure a win at Alfonso Lastras stadium.

Scenario 1: if they beat San Luis

Atlas is currently ninth in the table, with 20 points. A win as a visitor would put them on 23 points and seal their place to the playoffs - it could also open up the possibility of moving up a place to eighth in the standings. If they do, they will host the tie at Jalisco Stadium - a single knockout match, giving them home advantage in their bid to make the quarter finals.

But even then it would not depend solely on a Rojinegro victory. Atlas would have to wait for Cruz Azul to either lose or draw at home against Santos Laguna. With both of those results combined, Los Zorros, who just a few weeks ago were out of the picture, would play the playoffs at home.

Scenario 2: if they only draw against Atlético San Luis

While Atlas are virtually qualified for the next round, a single point would mathematically secure a ticket to the playoffs. However, other results would determine where they finish in the table. There is a possibility that they could drop down a couple of positions to 11th if Querétaro (with no chance of making the playoffs) and Santos Laguna win their respective games against Pachuca and Cruz Azul - both at home.

Scenario 3: if they lose to Atlético San Luis

A defeat would leave Los Zorros depending entirely on what the other teams do and would also determine which position in the table they will finish in. On top of that, it would see them condemned to play the playoffs away from home. San Luis would overtake them in the table with 21 points. Santos (19 points) and Pumas (18 points) could also also move ahead of them if they win their matches - against Cruz Azul and Monterrey respectively.

With the above combination of results, there is even am extremely remote possibility that Atlas could fail to finish in the top 12 places at all and be left out of the playoffs. That would depend on Puebla (14th on 17 points) beating Tijuana by a massive scoreline and qualifying on goal difference. Puebla’s goal difference is -9 while Atlas’ is +5 - for example, if Atlas lose by one goal, Puebla would need to win by 14, or if La Franja win 10-0 and Atlas lose 5-0.... Of course it’s highly unlikely that all of those results would occur on the final matchday. As things stand at the moment and considering the options, Benjamín Mora’s side is virtually qualified.