EURO 2024
What does each team need to advance to the Round of 16 at Euro 2024?
Going into the final round of group stage games, only three nations have automatically progressed ( Spain, Portugal and Germany) with Poland the only eliminated side.
There is everything to play for at Euro 2024 with the bulk of teams going into the last round of group stage fixtures hoping of progressing to the next stage with only three nations mathematically through to the next phase in Spain, Germany and Portugal with Poland the only team that has already been eliminated from the tournament.
The top two sides from each group progress along with the four best third finishing teams.
Group A:
Germany have already qualified but they have to determine in which position. They face Switzerland on Sunday and a win or draw would see the Mannschaft finish first.
Switzerland’s situation is tricky. They will qualify for the round of 16 if they avoid defeat against Germany (if they beat the host nation they will top the group) or if Scotland does not beat Hungary. If they lose and Scotland win, everything will be decided by the tiebreaker criteria: goal difference, then highest number of goals scored, then disciplinary points, then ranking in the European Qualifiers.
Scotland will qualify for the round of 16 as second if they beat Hungary and Switzerland lose against Germany, provided the above criteria are met. Scotland will not be able to get into the round of 16 if they lose.
Hungary will not be able to finish in the top two and will not be able to qualify for the round of 16 if they do not beat Scotland.
Group B:
Spain are through to the Round of 16 as group winners and will face one of the best third teams from Groups A-D-E-F.
Italy will be second if they do not lose to Croatia. Italy will not be able to automatically progress if they lose and Albania beats Spain.
Albania will qualify for the round of 16 as second if they defeat Spain and Croatia beat Italy, but the tie breakers may be used in the case of teams being tied on points. Albania will not be able to get into the round of 16 if they slip up, or if they draw and Croatia beats Italy.
Croatia will qualify for the round of 16 as second in the group if they beat Italy and Albania does not beat Spain (if Albania also wins, Croatia and Albania will share the second and third places according to the criteria indicated above). Croatia will not be able to get into the round of 16 if they slip up or if they draw and Albania secures at least a point against Spain.
Group C:
England will advance to the second round if they avoid defeat against Slovenia or if Denmark does not beat Serbia. England will be first in the group if they beat Slovenia or if they draw and Denmark fails to win. If England draw and Denmark win, they will share first and second place based on overall goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary points and European Qualifiers qualification. England cannot be lower than third place.
Denmark will advance to the round of 16 if they beat Serbia. If Denmark and Slovenia tie, second and third place will be shared according to the criteria described above, and also first and second place if Denmark and Slovenia win (or Denmark and England, if Denmark wins and England ties), or third and fourth position if Denmark and Slovenia lose. Denmark will not be able to advance to the second round if they lose and Slovenia avoids defeat.
Slovenia will advance to the round of 16 if they beat England. Slovenia will win the group if they win. If Slovenia and Denmark win, they will share first and second place according to the criteria described above, in the same way as second and third place if both tie, or third and fourth place if both lose, or Slovenia and Serbia for third or fourth place if Slovenia loses and Serbia draws.
Serbia will advance to the round of 16 if they beat Denmark and Slovenia does not beat England (if Serbia and Slovenia win, Serbia will be third behind England in the head-to-head record). If Serbia draws and Slovenia loses, they will share third and fourth place according to the criteria described above. Serbia will not be able to advance to the second round with a loss or a draw and Slovenia avoids defeat.
Group D:
France will advance to the second round (among the first two) if they avoid defeat against Poland or if Austria does not beat the Netherlands. France will be first in the group with a win and the Netherlands fails to also record a win. If France and the Netherlands win or tie, they will share first and second place according to the UEFA criteria, and the same will happen with second and third place if they both lose.
The Netherlands will advance to the round of 16 if they avoid defeat against Austria. The Netherlands will win the group if they wins and France fail to win also. The Netherlands will be second with a draw and France wins. If the Netherlands and France win or draw, they will share first place based on overall goal difference, goals scored, disciplinary points and European Qualifiers standings. Likewise, if the Netherlands and France lose, they will share second and third place according to the same criteria.
Austria will advance to the second round (among the first two) if they beat the Netherlands. Austria will be first if it wins and France does not. If Austria draws and France loses, Austria will be third behind France in head-to-head history.
Poland is already eliminated.
Group E:
This group is the toughest to call of the six as any of the four teams can advance to the round of 16, including a four-point tie if both games are tied on the last day.
Romania will qualify for the round of 16 if they beat Slovakia and also as first. It would only be second if Belgium also beats Ukraine. The draw against Slovakia opens up a wide range of options. If they lose, they would be eliminated if the other match is tied or if Ukraine beats Belgium, since they would not be eligible to be one of the best third places.
Belgium will qualify for the round of 16 if they beat Ukraine and also as first as long as Slovakia does not beat Romania. The draw against Ukraine opens up a wide range of options. If they lose, they would be eliminated if the other match is tied or if Romania beats Slovakia, since they would not be eligible to be one of the best third places.
Slovakia will qualify for the round of 16 if they beat Romania and also as first. The Slovaks would only be second if Ukraine also beats Belgium. The draw against Romania opens up a wide range of options as with a loss they would be eliminated if the other match is tied or if Belgium beats Ukraine, since they would not be eligible to be one of the best third places.
Ukraine will qualify for the round of 16 if they beat Belgium and also as first as long as Romania does not beat Slovakia. The draw against Belgium opens up a wide range of options. If they lose, they would be eliminated if the other match is tied or if Slovakia beats Romania, since they would not be eligible to be one of the best third places.
Group F:
Portugal is already through to the next round after their 3-0 win over Türkiye and first in the group.
Türkiye will qualify for the round of 16 if they beat the Czech Republic or get a draw against the Czechs. IF they lose they will be in trouble and should Georgia beat beats Portugal, they would be eliminated.
Czech Republic needs to win to be in the round of 16: they would surpass Turkey and if Georgia achieves victory against Portugal they should go to the tiebreaker criteria to find out which team passes as second in the group. A tie would leave them with two points and it would be very difficult to be one of the four best third sides.
Georgia is in the same circumstance as the Czech Republic. They need to win and hope that the Czechs beat Turkey, but at the same time finish with a better overall goal average than the Czech Republic. In the event of a surprise victory against Portugal, the draw in the other match would see Turkey finish second and Georgia third.